On some sort of island, a big island, very close to the sea

September 9th, 2026

Biohazard by Ken AlibekKen Alibek explains (in Biohazard) what happened when a Soviet bio-weapons researcher did not return from a trip abroad:

“Who gave him permission to go?”

“I did,” I said. “But I told you about it.”

Shortly after Pasechnik’s initial request, I had informed Kalinin of the invitation from the French company. I had full authority to grant permission for such trips, but Kalinin had told me to keep him abreast of staff movements.

“I don’t remember that,” Kalinin shot back, glancing at Bykov. “You didn’t tell me a thing!”

I felt an involuntary shudder. Kalinin was making it perfectly clear that I was on my own. He looked uncomfortable nonetheless.

Bykov seemed suddenly to enjoy the awkward position in which his rival had been placed. A veteran of Kremlin power struggles, he knew how to take advantage of such situations.

Skipping ahead:

“Well, we think we know where he is.”

“How did you find him?”

“We used a psychic,” Yermoshin explained.

“We showed him a photo of Pasechnik, and he stared at it for a long time until he told us that your man was on some sort of island, a big island, very close to the sea.”

“An island?” I said, puzzled.

“Yes of course,” Yermoshin went on.

“And he said there was a large old building, with two or three men working with him.”

I started to smile. I had never dreamed the KGB was interested in extrasensory perception.

Skipping way, way ahead:

In January 1995, long after I had defected, I was invited by the British government to discuss biodefense issues. During a break, several British officers came up to me and we began to talk through an interpreter about Pasechnik, whom I had not seen since 1989. The mood was light, and I casually told them the story of the KGB and its psychic. They didn’t laugh.

“But that’s exactly where we had him,” one of the officers said. “We wanted to keep him secure, so we brought him to an old house on the coast.”

The KGB psychic was either remarkably talented or he had remarkably good contacts. Even at the time, I suspected that Yermoshin had been ordered to let me in on the psychic’s “secret” to check my reaction. Bykov or Kalinin must have been determined to catch me up. If I had not shown surprise at the news about the island, it would have been proof of guilt. I was angry with Yermoshin for agreeing to be part of such a clumsy trick.

Their reaction:

A consensus was reached quickly. Everything relating to secret defense work at Pasechnik’s facility would have to be destroyed. The Institute of Ultra-Pure Biopreparations would become civilian in fact as well as in name. This would leave a major hole in our program, but there was no alternative.

[…]

“There’s only one thing to do. He has to be killed.”

[…]

One of the KGB colonels spoke up. “I’d like to stop this discussion,” he said softly.

“Nobody is going to say anything about killing here.”

A chill came over the room. I think we all got the message: if an assassination was required, the KGB needed no advice from amateurs.

The key was clearly its general-purpose, algorithmic nature

September 8th, 2026

Many seemingly basic questions of area, length and tangents could not be solved by the ancient geometers:

Even when solutions could be found, they were always ad hoc. As with the circle, Archimedes was also able to find the area enclosed by a line and a parabola. But his solution required an ingenious setup that was entirely different from his solution for the circle. Every property of every curve needed its own distinct solution.

This was the problem that 17th century mathematicians were aiming to address. Before calculus had been invented, René Descartes described in a 1619 letter his ambitious goal to create an “entirely new science, by which all problems that can be posed, concerning any kind of quantity, continuous or discrete, can be generally solved.”

Newton’s mentor Isaac Barrow demonstrated the fundamental theorem of calculus and came close to developing a true general calculus. In describing his unified approach to analyzing curves, he wrote: “I have previously proved a number of general properties of curves of continuous curvature, deducing them from a certain mode of construction common to all.”1

The first publication on (differential) calculus proper is credited to Gottfried Leibniz in 1684; it is from here the name “calculus” originates. To understand how Leibniz perceived his invention and its importance, we need only read the title of the paper: “A new method for maxima and minima, and for tangents, that is not hindered by fractional or irrational quantities, and a singular kind of calculus for the above mentioned.” In other words, it was one method (“singular kind of calculus”) from which multiple properties (maxima, minima, and tangents) could be obtained, applicable even to complicated curves (“not hindered by…”).

The key was clearly its general-purpose, algorithmic nature. Leibniz gave for the first time the world a tool that made the calculation of these properties easy, systematic and general. In the paper he provided not only algorithms for determining tangents, minima and maxima for general curves, but also a corresponding notation and general rules of differentiation (e.g., the addition rule, product rule, quotient rule and power rule). A few years later, Leibniz also published papers on integral calculus and on the fundamental theorem of calculus.

Independently and before Leibniz, Newton also invented a calculus he called the Method of Fluxions, though it remained unpublished until after his death. The two methods differed in important ways—certainly in terminology and symbols used—and yet generality was also key to the Method of Fluxions.

One of Pasechnik’s most important projects was the modification of cruise missiles for the delivery of biological agents

September 7th, 2026

Biohazard by Ken AlibekThe Institute of Ultra-Pure Biopreparations, Ken Alibek explains (in Biohazard), provided many of the Soviet Union’s breakthroughs in bio-weapons production:

One of its most notable contributions was a milling machine that used a powerful blast of air to turn bacterial and viral mixtures into a fine powder. Nothing like this “jet-stream” machine had ever been built before, at least so far as we knew. It was intended to replace the heavy ball-bearing mills used for decades by the Ministry of Defense and to become a standard fixture at all of our production plants.

Work was also done on new approaches to drying and microencapsulation—the process of covering agents in polymer capsules to preserve and protect them from ultraviolet light. Highly pathogenic agents were forbidden inside the city limits, so the focus of the institute was on developing new processes and equipment.

One of Pasechnik’s most important projects was the modification of cruise missiles for the delivery of biological agents. The Leningrad scientists were asked to analyze the efficiency of aerosol clouds sprayed from a “fast-flying, low-altitude moving object” containing one or more twenty-liter canisters of liquid or dry agent. They designed a moving platform to release canisters as the missile passed over successive targets. The canisters would break apart on impact with the air.

88 million American adults own guns

September 6th, 2026

According to the 2026 National Firearms Survey, 32.7% of U.S. adults (95% CI 32.2% – 33.2%) personally own firearms, suggesting that approximately 88 million American adults own guns:

Following the practice of major survey programs such as the General Social Survey, Gallup, and Pew’s American Trends Panel, household income is not employed as a weighting dimension. However, income-raked estimates, which range up to 34.9%, are reported as robustness exercises in an appendix. Ownership is demographically diverse: 45.7% of validated gun owners are female, 25.6% do not identify as White (alone), and the gap in ownership rates between White Americans (34.6%) and Black Americans (33.0%) has narrowed to less than two percentage points. The survey finds that 37.6% of gun owners have used a firearm to defend themselves, their property, a family member, or a member of their household, and it estimates that guns are used defensively by firearms owners in approximately 2.2 million incidents per year. In most defensive incidents no shot was fired (76.3%), about half (50.8%) involved more than one assailant, and in 70.6% of incidents respondents report that the defensive use was successful, such that no crime remained to be reported to the police. 8.4% of defensive incidents were directed against animal threats rather than criminal threats. Separate from these self-defense incidents, 34.7% of gun owners reported that the mere presence of a gun has deterred criminal conduct.

A majority of gun owners (70.0%) indicate that there are some circumstances in which they carry a handgun for self-defense. We estimate that approximately 33.6 million gun owners (39.3% of those aged 21 and over) are “public carriers” who are permitted to carry and carry at least sometimes. The average gun owner owns about 5.2 firearms, and handguns are the most common type of firearm owned (91.6% of owners). 50.5% of gun owners – approximately 44.5 million adults – report that they currently own magazines that hold more than 10 rounds (approximately 539 million such magazines in total), and 88.0% of these owners cite a defensive purpose for owning them. 25.0% of gun owners currently own an AR-15 type rifle, 12.9% currently own other similarly styled semi-automatic rifles, and 30.0% – approximately 26.4 million adults – currently own at least one firearm in one of these two categories, with approximately 40 million AR-15 type rifles and 20 million other similarly styled rifles owned in total. Overall, Americans own approximately 461 million firearms, consisting of approximately 208 million handguns, 154 million rifles, and 99 million shotguns.

The mysterious virus appeared to liquefy body organs

September 5th, 2026

Biohazard by Ken AlibekThe first recorded outbreak of the virus we now call the Marburg virus occurred in 1967, Ken Alibek explains (in Biohazard), at the Behring pharmaceutical works in Marburg, an old university town seventy miles north of Frankfurt:

An animal keeper died two weeks after he contracted a mysterious illness from green monkeys sent to the Behring lab from central Africa. The lab was culturing vaccines in kidney cells extracted from the monkeys. Other workers soon fell sick, and similar cases were reported at laboratories in Frankfurt and Belgrade, both of which had received shiploads of green monkeys from central Africa at the same time.

Twenty-four lab technicians came down with the unknown disease, along with six of the nurses caring for them. Of the thirty-one people infected, seven died. This kind of undiagnosed outbreak would be alarming enough, but it was the horror of their deaths that caught the attention of biologists and tropical disease specialists around the world.

The mysterious virus appeared to liquefy body organs. One of the survivors went mad after the organism chewed away his brain cells. Before the victims died, every inch of their bodies was wet with blood.

Following tradition, the virus was named after the place where it was first identified. It would alter forever the image of a city that has been a center of European philosophy, science, and religion for centuries.

Some of the world’s greatest bacteriologists and biochemists have studied at Marburg—including Albrecht Kossel, whose research laid the groundwork for the discovery of DNA, and Alexandre Yersin, a codiscoverer of the plague bacterium (named Yersinia pestis after him). The lab in which Marburg was first smeared on a glass slide was itself named after the man credited with founding the science of immunology—Emil von Behring.

A similar virus surfaced nine years later on the banks of the Ebola River in Zaire, now the Democratic Republic of Congo. By the time that epidemic died out, 430 people were dead in Zaire and nearby Sudan.

[…]

Under an electron microscope, both organisms seemed to proliferate by shooting out tiny filament-like threads, like the lines cast by fishermen, from the cells they had already scoured for the food they needed to grow. The threads were often bent at the top, like fishing hooks, and as they prepared to invade a new cell they curled into rings, like microscopic Cheerios. Marburg and Ebola were deemed to belong to a new family of viral organisms. They were called filoviruses.

[…]

Ebola’s mortality rate is between 70 and 90 percent.

Naturally the Soviets developed weaponized versions:

A strain of Marburg arrived in the Soviet Union a decade after it was first isolated, during one of our periodic global searches for promising material. It wasn’t clear from the records whether we obtained it from the United States or directly from Germany, but it was immediately added to our growing collection of viral warfare agents. We were already investigating a number of microorganisms that weaken blood vessels and cause hemorrhagic fevers, such as Junin from Argentina and Machupo from Bolivia.

And, naturally, accidents occurred:

Ustinov had been conducting a series of experiments with guinea pigs and rabbits to monitor the effects of increasingly higher concentrations of Marburg. The injection of such a highly concentrated dose directly into his thumb meant that he now had hundreds, perhaps thousands of times more particles of the virus coursing through his body than any of the victims in Germany. I thought his chances of survival were near zero.

[…]

This was less than two years after Chernobyl; the Soviet Union was in no mood for a new disaster.

[…]

No technician should have worked long hours with such a contagious organism. People tired easily in the heavy protective suits required for Zone Three. Their reflexes slowed down, and it was easy to become careless. Adding to our problems, Marburg research had begun at Vector before a supply of antiserum was on hand.

Ustinov’s illness lasted nearly three weeks. Throughout that time, none of his colleagues was allowed to stop working.

[…]

Ustinov had been injecting Marburg into guinea pigs with the help of a lab technician, working through a glove box. He was not in a full space suit and was wearing two thin layers of rubber gloves instead of the thick mitts normally required for such work in Zone Three. The gloves provided the flexibility to control the laboratory animals, who will otherwise squirm and try to wriggle out of a technician’s grip.

Our rules required that animals targeted for injection be strapped to a wooden board to hold them securely in place. That day, Ustinov wasn’t following procedure. He decided to steady the guinea pigs with his gloved hand. Perhaps he thought it would help calm them. Or perhaps he was in too much of a hurry.

The technician became distracted and nudged him accidentally. Ustinov’s hand slipped just as he was pressing down on the syringe. The needle went through the guinea pig and punctured his thumb, drawing blood.

The needle went in no farther than half a centimeter, but the faint spot of blood indicated that liquid Marburg had entered his bloodstream. As soon as he realized what had happened, Ustinov called the duty supervisor from the telephone inside the lab.

From then on, the procedures established for such emergencies were followed to the letter. Doctors and nurses dressed in protective suits were waiting for him as he emerged from the disinfectant shower. They rushed him to the small hospital in the Vector compound, a twenty-bed isolation facility sealed off from the outside with thick walls and pressure-locked doors.

[…]

Within a couple of days he was complaining of a severe headache and nausea. Gradually, he became passive and uncommunicative, as his features froze in toxic shock. On the fourth day his eyes turned red and tiny bruises appeared all over his body: capillaries close to his skin had begun to hemorrhage.

Ustinov twitched silently in his bed while the virus multiplied in his system. Too tired to speak, or to turn over, or to eat, he would drift in and out of consciousness, staring for long periods of time at nothing. Occasionally, lucidity would return. He called for paper during those brief moments to record the progress of the virus as it foraged through his body. Sometimes he burst into tears.

On the tenth day, his fever subsided and he stopped retching. As brilliant a scientist as he was, Ustinov began to entertain the delusion that he was improving. He started smiling again and asked about his family.

[…]

By the fifteenth day, the tiny bruises on Ustinov’s body had turned dark blue, and his skin was as thin as parchment. The blood pooling underneath began oozing through. It streamed from his nose, mouth, and genitals. Through a mechanism that is still poorly understood, the virus prevents normal coagulation: the platelets responsible for clotting blood are destroyed. As the virus spreads, the body’s internal organs literally begin to melt away.

Shuddering bouts of diarrhea left rivers of black liquid on his sheets. The scraps of paper on which he had been scribbling his symptoms and which the nurses had gingerly carried out to transcribe each day no longer littered the floor. There was nothing more to write.

[…]

Each viral particle, or virion, forms a brick that pushes against the cell walls until they burst. The cells then sprout wavering hair-like antennae that home in on their next target, where the process of foraging and destruction blindly repeats itself.

[…]

The doctors from the Ministry of Health arrived early in the first week with the antiserum. To no one’s surprise, it proved useless. Antiviral drugs such as ribavirin and interferon were also tried. Hemorrhagic fevers can sometimes be treated with whole-body blood transfusions, but the medical team concluded that it would in this case be ineffective.

[…]

I don’t know how the senior levels of our bureaucracy reacted to Ustinov’s death, but no condolence letter was ever sent to his widow. Sandakchiev asked us for ten thousand rubles as special compensation for his family in addition to the normal pension survivors were entitled to. It was a princely sum in those days, and Kalinin balked at first, but he finally approved the request.

[…]

The risk of contagion made normal interment impossible, so his corpse was covered with chloramine disinfectant and wrapped in plastic sheeting. The remains were placed inside a metal box, welded shut, and fitted into a wooden coffin. Only then was it safe to lay him in the ground.

[…]

The small group of mourners included Ustinov’s immediate family, his closest colleagues, and a cordon of KGB agents who had worked frantically to keep the circumstances of his illness secret. No one came from Moscow.

Regulations prohibited the circulation of any reports about accidents, fatal or otherwise, but news of the tragedy spread quickly through The System.

[…]

A virus grown in laboratory conditions is liable to become more virulent when it passes through the live incubator of a human or an animal body. Few were surprised, therefore, when samples of Marburg taken from Ustinov’s organs after his autopsy differed slightly from the original strain. Further testing showed that the new variation was much more powerful and stable.

No one needed to debate the next step. Orders went out immediately to replace the old strain with the new, which was called, in a move that the wry Ustinov might have appreciated, “Variant U.”

[…]

After testing the weapon in explosive chambers, we applied it to the monkeys. Every one of the twelve monkeys contracted the virus. They were all dead within three weeks.

In early 1990, Marburg Variant U was ready for approval by the Ministry of Defense.

Our scientist had found it more difficult to cultivate Ebola than Marburg—they were not able to reach the necessary concentration—but by the end of 1990, the long-term problem of cultivation had been solved and we were close to developing a new Ebola weapon. Meanwhile, at Zagorsk (Sergiyev Posad) military scientists were putting the finishing touches on new Lassa fever and monkey pox biological weapons.

Panamanian officials see them as retaliation

September 4th, 2026

Panama is paying a price for stepping away from Beijing:

Recent reporting indicates that Chinese authorities have sharply increased inspections and detentions of Panamanian-flagged ships after Panama’s Supreme Court struck down the concessions held by Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison at the Balboa and Cristobal container terminals. Beijing says the measures are based on safety concerns. Panamanian officials see them as retaliation for a decision that weakened China’s commercial position at both ends of the Panama Canal.

Panama is one battle in a much larger contest over who will shape the Western Hemisphere. For more than two decades, China expanded its reach by financing, building, and operating ports, railways, electrical grids, telecommunications systems, logistics hubs, and energy projects across Latin America. Those investments created influence that extends well beyond commerce.

[…]

Panama recognized the People’s Republic of China in 2017, ended diplomatic relations with Taiwan, and joined the Belt and Road Initiative the following year. Chinese firms pursued the proposed Panama City-David railway, the Fourth Bridge over the Panama Canal, the Amador Cruise Terminal, and other large projects.

The greatest concern centered on the Balboa and Cristobal terminals at the Pacific and Atlantic entrances to the canal, operated by Panama Ports Company, a subsidiary of CK Hutchison. China did not own or operate the canal, but companies tied to Beijing had gained influence over commercial infrastructure surrounding it.

[…]

Washington increasingly viewed Chinese influence surrounding the canal as a national security concern. It elevated the issue in discussions with Panama, encouraged greater American investment, and supported efforts that led CK Hutchison to agree to sell its controlling interest in the terminals to a U.S.-led consortium.

Panama also withdrew from China’s Belt and Road Initiative. When Chinese opposition delayed the proposed sale, Panama’s Supreme Court struck down the port concessions, clearing the way for new management.

He was the reformer Ken Alibek‘s generation had been waiting for

September 3rd, 2026

Biohazard by Ken AlibekGorbachev came into office in March 1986, Ken Alibek explains (in Biohazard), determined to break up the corrupt bureaucratic fiefdoms of the Brezhnev era and to create a stronger, more cohesive government:

He was the reformer my generation had been waiting for. Nearly everyone under forty at Biopreparat considered him our best hope.

[…]

The Five-Year Plan, signed in his characteristic scrawl by Mikhail Gorbachev, outlined the most ambitious program for biological weapons development ever given to our agency. It included a three-hundred-million-ruble viral production plant (then equivalent to four hundred million dollars) at Yoshkar-Ola in the autonomous republic of Mordovia. The plan established a new military facility at Strizhi, near Kirov, for the production of viral and bacterial weapons and, most significantly, it funded the construction of a 630-liter viral reactor to produce smallpox at the Russian State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology, a facility known within The System as Vector.

[…]

Vector’s prize acquisition was the expensive new viral reactor authorized by Gorbachev’s decree. Designed by one of our Moscow institutes and assembled at a special Biopreparat plant in western Russia, it was the first of its kind in the world. It stood about five feet high and was enclosed within thick stainless steel walls. An agitator at the bottom kept the mixture inside churning like clothes in a washing machine. Pipes led out in several directions, both for waste matter and weapons-ready material. A window on its convex roof allowed scientists to observe the viral culture at all times.

[…]

Considering that outsiders might be suspicious if they saw hundreds of people with the distinctive marks of fresh smallpox inoculations on their arms years after the Soviet Union had discontinued all immunization, we decided, after some deliberation, to issue a directive that workers be inoculated on their buttocks. We assumed this part of their anatomy was safe from prying foreign eyes.

[…]

In December 1990, we tested a new smallpox weapon in aerosol form inside Vector’s explosive chambers. It performed well. We calculated that the production line in the newly constructed Building 15 at Koltsovo was capable of manufacturing between eighty and one hundred tons of smallpox a year. Parallel to this, a group of arrogant young scientists at Vector were developing genetically altered strains of smallpox, which we soon hoped to include in this production process.

Catastrophic normal accidents will happen with increasing regularity

September 2nd, 2026

In the first decades of the twentieth century, Harold Robertson explains, the idea that individuals should be systematically evaluated and selected based on their ability rather than wealth, class, or political connections, led to significant changes in selection techniques at all levels of American society:

The Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) revolutionized college admissions by allowing elite universities to find and recruit talented students from beyond the boarding schools of New England. Following the adoption of the SAT, aptitude tests such as Wonderlic (1936), Graduate Record Examination (1936), Army General Classification Test (1941), and Law School Admission Test (1948) swept the United States. Spurred on by the demands of two world wars, this system of institutional management electrified the Tennessee Valley, created the first atom bomb, invented the transistor, and put a man on the moon.

By the 1960s, the systematic selection for competence came into direct conflict with the political imperatives of the civil rights movement. During the period from 1961 to 1972, a series of Supreme Court rulings, executive orders, and laws—most critically, the Civil Rights Act of 1964—put meritocracy and the new political imperative of protected-group diversity on a collision course. Administrative law judges have accepted statistically observable disparities in outcomes between groups as prima facie evidence of illegal discrimination. The result has been clear: any time meritocracy and diversity come into direct conflict, diversity must take priority.

The resulting norms have steadily eroded institutional competency, causing America’s complex systems to fail with increasing regularity. In the language of a systems theorist, by decreasing the competency of the actors within the system, formerly stable systems have begun to experience normal accidents at a rate that is faster than the system can adapt. The prognosis is harsh but clear: either selection for competence will return or America will experience devolution to more primitive forms of civilization and loss of geopolitical power.

[…]

The Air Traffic Control (ATC) system used in the U.S. relies on an intricate dance of visual or radar observation, transponders, and radio communication, all with the incredible challenge of keeping thousands of simultaneously moving planes from ever crashing into each other. Since air controlling is one of the only jobs that pays more than $100,000 per year and does not require a college diploma, it has been a popular career choice for individuals without a degree who nonetheless have an exceptionally good memory, attention span, visuospatial awareness, and logical skills. The Air Traffic Selection and Training (AT-SAT) Exam, a standardized test of those critical skills, was historically the primary barrier to entry for air controllers. As a consequence of the AT-SAT, as well as a preference for veterans with former air controller experience, 83 percent of air controllers in the U.S. were white men as of 2014.

That year, the FAA added a Biographical Questionnaire (BQ) to the screening process to tilt the applicant pool toward diverse candidates. Facing pushback in the courts from well-qualified candidates who were screened out, the FAA quietly backed away from the BQ and adopted a new exam, the Air Traffic Skills Assessment (ATSA). While the ATSA includes some questions similar to those of the BQ, it restored the test’s focus on core air traffic skills. The importance of highly-skilled air controllers was made clear in the most deadly air disaster in history, the 1977 Tenerife incident. Two planes, one taking off and one taxiing, collided on the runway due to confusion between the captain of KLM 4805 and the Tenerife ATC. The crash, which killed 583 people, resulted in sweeping changes in aviation safety culture.

Recently, the tremendous U.S. record for air safety established since the 1970s has been fraying at the edges. The first three months of 2023 saw nine near-miss incidents at U.S. airports, one with two planes coming within 100 feet of colliding. This terrifying uptick from years prior resulted in the FAA and NTSB convening safety summits in March and May, respectively. Whether they dared to discuss root causes seems unlikely.

Given the sheer size of the U.S. military in both manpower and budget dollars, it should not come as a surprise that the diversity push has also affected the readiness of this institution. Following three completely avoidable collisions of U.S. Navy warships in 2017 and a fire in 2020 that resulted in the scuttling of USS Bonhomme Richard, a $750 million amphibious assault craft, two retired marines conducted off-the-record interviews with 77 current and retired Navy officers. One recurring theme was the prioritization of diversity training over ship handling and warfighting preparedness. Many of them openly admit that, given current issues, the U.S. would likely lose an open naval engagement with China. Instead of taking the criticism to heart, the Navy commissioned “Task Force One Navy,” which recommended deemphasizing or eliminating meritocratic tests like the Officer Aptitude Rating to boost diversity. Absent an existential challenge, U.S. military preparedness is likely to continue to degrade.

[…]

The U.S. has embraced a novel question: what happens when the men who built the complex systems our society relies on cease contributing and are replaced by people who were chosen for reasons other than competency?

The answer is clear: catastrophic normal accidents will happen with increasing regularity. While each failure is officially seen as a separate issue to be fixed with small patches, the reality is that the whole system is seeing failures at an accelerating rate, which will lead in turn to the failure of other systems. In the case of the Camp Fire that killed 85 people, PG&E fired its CEO, filed Chapter 11, and restructured. The system’s response has been to turn off the electricity and raise wildfire insurance premiums. This has resulted in very little reflection.

[…]

The path of least resistance will be the devolution of complex systems and the reduction in the quality of life that entails. For the typical resident in a second-tier city in Mexico, Brazil, or South Africa, power outages are not uncommon, tap water is probably not safe to drink, and hospital-associated infections are common and often fatal. Absent a step change in the quality of American governance and a renewed culture of excellence, they prefigure the country’s future.

Where other governments saw a medical victory, the Kremlin perceived a military opportunity

September 1st, 2026

Biohazard by Ken AlibekOf all the diseases that have tormented mankind, Ken Alibek explains (in Biohazard), smallpox has left the oldest and the deepest scars:

Recorded as early as 1122 B.C. in China, it altered the course of history, ravaging eighteenth-century Europe and decimating the native populations of North America. Smallpox comes from the pox family of viruses, which assault the upper respiratory tract. Variola major, the scientific name by which the smallpox virus is known, is patient and systematic. It will begin by insinuating itself into cells close to the surface of the skin and in the neural system. The smallpox virus sheds its shell as soon as it enters a live cell, and quickly begins to multiply. Viral transcription begins almost immediately, inhibiting DNA synthesis and thereby preventing the cell from activating its defense mechanisms. Once the virus has inserted its genetic information into the host cell, proteins and enzymes are created to help it mature and develop. The progress of the virus can be mapped by the spread of tiny pink spots from the face and arms to the lower regions of the body.

Smallpox symptoms were once familiar to every doctor. After a quiet incubation period of five to ten days, the virus manifests itself suddenly. The first stage of the disease brings high fever, vomiting, headache, and a strange stiffness. This can last from two to four days. Within less than a week, small spots will begin to develop, forming a rash around the face. As the rash spreads over the following week these spots will develop into painful blisters. In the normal course of the illness, the blisters form scabs that linger for several weeks until they dry and fall off, leaving scars. More severe forms of black or red pox can lead to death within three to four days.

[…]

On May 8, 1980, the World Health Organization announced that smallpox had been eradicated from the planet. The last naturally occurring case was reported in Somalia in 1977, and no new cases had been detected in three years. The WHO recommended the discontinuation of smallpox immunization programs, observing that there was no longer any need to subject people to even the negligible risk connected with vaccination.

The international agency simultaneously adopted a resolution restricting the world’s stocks of smallpox to four sites, where limited quantities would be available for research purposes. A few years later, the sites were narrowed down to two: the Centers for Disease Control in Atlanta and the Ivanovsky Institute of Virology in Moscow.

The conquest of smallpox generated a special feeling of accomplishment in the Soviet Union: the worldwide crusade against smallpox had been a Soviet initiative. Moscow first proposed the campaign at a World Health Organization meeting in 1958, and its sponsorship of vaccination programs in the third world won it admirers everywhere. Russia had suffered its share of smallpox outbreaks over the centuries, finally managing to eliminate the disease in 1936, after a decade-long immunization program sponsored by the fledgling Bolshevik government.

Soon after the WHO announcement, smallpox was included in a list of viral and bacterial weapons targeted for improvement in the 1981–85 Five-Year-Plan.

Where other governments saw a medical victory, the Kremlin perceived a military opportunity. A world no longer protected from smallpox was a world newly vulnerable to the disease.

[…]

In 1947, the Soviet Union established its first smallpox weapons factory just outside the ancient cathedral town of Zagorsk, forty minutes’ drive northwest of Moscow. Zagorsk (now Sergiyev Posad) is the site of the

[…]

A few miles away, in another walled compound, Soviet army scientists at the Virological Center of the Ministry of Defense devoutly cultivated smallpox, Q fever, and Venezuelan equine encephalitis in the embryos of chicken eggs.

[…]

Using tiny syringes, laboratory workers injected microscopic amounts of smallpox virus into eggs and sealed each egg with paraffin. The eggs were placed inside thermostatic ovens for several days while the embryo host cells stirred the virus into life. As it monopolized the cells’ normal growth mechanisms, the virus spawned successive replications of itself until the host was engulfed or destroyed. The eggs were then punctured and the liquid inside poured into special vats and mixed with stabilizing materials. The resulting weapon could remain potent in refrigerated conditions for at least a year.

[…]

Under a state-controlled agricultural system it was easy to conceal the purpose of hijacking so many eggs from the marketplace.

[…]

In 1959, a traveler from India infected forty-six Muscovites with smallpox before authorities realized what had happened. The traveler had been vaccinated, but smallpox vaccinations lose their effectiveness over time, and while his weakened immunity was enough to protect him from suffering the symptoms of the disease, he could still pass it on to others. The strain of Variola major in his system was so virulent that an epidemic was only narrowly averted. Partly in response to this incident, the Soviet government sent a special medical team to India to help purge the virus from the subcontinent.

KGB agents went with them.

They returned to Russia with a strain of Indian smallpox excellently suited to weapons production.

[…]

In the 1970s, smallpox was considered so important to our biological arsenal that the Soviet military command issued an order to maintain an annual stockpile of twenty tons. The weapons were stored at army facilities in Zagorsk. Annual quotas of smallpox were required as it decayed over time.

[…]

The smallpox virus is so hardy that it can remain infectious for long periods, even in the soiled linen of those who have been infected. Smallpox victims are infectious from the moment of their first symptoms until the healing of the last scar, two to three weeks later, and they can transmit the disease to others with as little as a cough.

[…]

Humans are the virus’s only natural hosts. There is no way, therefore, for the disease to propagate in nature.

[…]

There are no therapeutic measures currently available to treat smallpox once symptoms develop.

[…]

Smallpox kills between 30 and 50 percent of unvaccinated victims, a low mortality rate, but its morbidity rate ranges from 60 to 90 percent. For many people, contracting smallpox amounts to a life sentence. Some victims are permanently blinded. Others will bear scars as long as they live.

[…]

Schoolchildren in the United States, Russia, and elsewhere around the world are not vaccinated against the disease, and international travelers are no longer required to show proof of smallpox immunity.

Today there are twelve million doses of smallpox vaccine on hand in the United States—of which only seven million are fully reliable, according to the Centers for Disease Control in Atlanta—a portion of the roughly two hundred million doses available in the world. This sounds like a comfortable amount to meet an emergency, until you consider the damage a smallpox attack would do in a densely populated commuter city like New York.

[…]

During World War II the Western allies explored the possibility of weaponizing several viral diseases, including Venezuelan equine encephalitis and smallpox. American, Canadian, and British scientists found to their frustration that viruses were far more difficult to manipulate than bacteria.

[…]

Aerosols were still in the early stages of development in the 1940s, and most of the approaches considered by the Allies for weaponizing smallpox seem strange today. One method involved grinding an Asian strain of smallpox into a fine powder to dust over letters. By the time the war ended, the Allies had largely given up on weaponizing viruses.

[…]

Fewer than five viral particles of smallpox were sufficient to infect 50 percent of the animals exposed to aerosols in our testing labs. To infect the same percentage of humans with anthrax would require ten thousand to twenty thousand spores. For plague, the comparable figure is fifteen hundred cells. The differences in quantity are too minute to be discernible to the naked eye, but they are significant if you are planning attacks on a large scale. Smallpox requires almost no concentration process.

While we had clung to our egg-and-conveyor-belt method of making smallpox, Western pharmaceutical labs were manufacturing vaccines in special reactors from cultures grown in tissue cells obtained from animals or humans. This technique required expertise.

They gathered their neighbors, formed organizations, accepted responsibility, and built institutions together

August 31st, 2026

People often describe homeschooling as opting out, Robert Pondiscio notes, but he suggested something different to a group of “graduating” homeschoolers:

Your parents may have exited one educational institution. But they didn’t stop there. For just a moment, they were consumers. They looked at the educational marketplace and concluded, “This school is not the right place for our child.” Then something remarkable happened. They stopped consuming. They became producers. They didn’t merely purchase an education. They built one.

The most diligent homeschooling families are performing a profoundly American act of strengthening civil society:

Tocqueville famously observed that Americans possessed a remarkable habit of association. Faced with problems, they didn’t simply petition the state. They gathered their neighbors, formed organizations, accepted responsibility, and built institutions together.

I wanted the graduates to leave with something more than pride in their accomplishment. I wanted them to understand what their parents had really given them. An education, yes, but also a brilliant example of citizenship. Their parents saw something they believed needed doing and, instead of waiting for someone else to do it, accepted the responsibility themselves. Whether the graduates someday homeschool their own children is beside the point. What I hoped they would inherit was that instinct: When something important isn’t being done well enough, don’t complain or blame others. Build.

The word virus comes from the Latin term for poison

August 30th, 2026

Biohazard by Ken AlibekThe word virus, Ken Alibek explains (in Biohazard), comes from the Latin term for poison:

Viruses are invisible under most microscopes and hundreds of thousands of times smaller than a grain of sand. Their existence was unsuspected until Dmitry Ivanovsky, a Russian microbiologist, discovered them in the late nineteenth century while investigating an outbreak of mosaic disease in tobacco plants. Ivanovsky found that the mysterious agent responsible for this disease was able to pass through filters that otherwise blocked bacteria. Over half a century would pass before the first virus was seen and identified under an electron microscope, but Ivanovsky’s discovery launched a new field of research into infectious diseases.

[…]

The immune system works on many levels at once, like an army with scouts and infantrymen, naval and air power, a sophisticated information network, and a carefully delineated command structure. Some cells are responsible for surveillance, others for coordinating information; some focus on local maneuvers while still others direct more general attacks. Immunologists distinguish between specific and nonspecific immunological reactions. Specific or acquired immune responses depend on memory cells, which store information about previous invaders and thus play a significant role in conferring immunity.

Among the most important agents in the immune system are T cells. They act as scouts, circulating through the bloodstream and moving into lymph nodes, on the lookout for foreign substances. As soon as a virus enters the bloodstream and infects its first cell, it will be recognized by T cells, which immediately activate, replicating themselves and sending out signals, calling for the formation of antibodies and attracting them to the site of infection. Antibodies are like ground troops. They are particularly effective at attacking viruses and bacteria that are still coursing through the system, before they have infiltrated target cells.

Within seconds of infection, defensive proteins and inflammatory agents are released, which activate natural killer cells and lead them to the site of infection. Interferon, one of the most powerful antiviral agents, degrades viral RNA, slows down protein synthesis, and inhibits viral reproduction in infected cells.

By the end of the first week or the beginning of the second, the body will in many cases have developed virus-specific antibodies, which sometimes seek to neutralize the virus by binding to its surface and preventing it from penetrating into new cells. But viruses are adept and mutate quickly. Countless are now capable of inhibiting and neutralizing the body’s natural defenses, rendering their resistance ineffective.

[…]

More than one hundred different viruses have been identified as causes of the common cold.

Superintelligence is already here

August 29th, 2026

Superintelligence is already here:

By most measures, the coding agent that now writes the vast majority of lines of code I produce at my job is already much smarter than I am. It can digest an enormous codebase in mere minutes and accurately answer targeted questions about it. It can write tests, examine failures, propose fixes, and iterate until the tests pass. It can find bugs in code before they make it into production. Or it can take a description of the symptoms of an abstruse bug in production, then generate hypotheses for the root cause. It’s not always right, but it usually is, or at least points me in the right direction. And critically, it can do all of these things much, much faster than I can, by a factor of ten or a hundred or more, depending on the task.

In a contest between two humans, we wouldn’t hesitate to say that the programmer who works 10 or 100 times more quickly than his peer, with similar quality, must be much smarter.

[…]

This is the state of the art for coding agents today: clear superhuman performance, with few qualifications, on a task universally understood to require intelligence. How, then, should we evaluate claims that current LLM technology has yet to achieve AGI, “artificial general intelligence”? One way to square the circle is to recognize that the capabilities of LLMs are spiky across different domains. In some areas, such as coding, they are already superhuman, even while they lag far behind in domains such as spatial reasoning. It’s possible to construct a pretty compelling case that this will remain the norm going forward, that future AI development will also be spiky and fall short of human capabilities in most areas.

[…]

Therefore, the G in AGI is not yet here, and may never be.

But what about ASI, “artificial superintelligence”? In popular conception it’s generally assumed that AGI will be a stepping stone on the way to ASI — once we hit AGI, ASI will simply be a product of more GPUs and better training. To many people who discuss these topics, an ASI is definitionally an AGI. But the spikiness model gives us another way to think about these definitions. LLMs are already superintelligent in a narrow sense: in terms of breadth of knowledge, ability to synthesize across domains, and of course raw speed, these tools are better than any human. To the extent that you agree that these capabilities constitute “intelligence”, then superintelligence is already here. They’re better than me, and they’re better than you.

[…]

But I can’t shake the feeling that something is missing, something vital, something that’s hard to express but even harder to ignore. The term I’m most comfortable with today is pseudointelligence: a phenomenon that appears to be intelligent, but on closer inspection isn’t.

[…]

The fact that producing a statistically likely next word over and over results in an effective simulacrum of reasoning is certainly curious, but it remains a simulacrum, even if it’s a useful one.

[…]

In the last year I have become 100 times as useful to any employer. But even this analogy falls flat — software doesn’t have physical constraints the same way construction projects do, it is literally impossible to ever run out of useful software to write. The industry hasn’t yet reconciled itself to this fact, but we need to dramatically increase our ambitions, far over and above what anyone would have called reasonable a year ago. We are going to write so, so much more software than we ever have before, and it will be terrible and wondrous.

Americans live shorter lives despite being much richer

August 28th, 2026

The reasons Americans live shorter lives despite being much richer than their peers are well-understood at this point, Cremieux explains:

The biggest contributor is that obesity is very bad for health, as countries get richer their citizens tend to get fatter, and America is the richest country.

[…]

All Americans regardless of race are, in principle, exposed to a health care system of the same quality understood broadly, although there are gaps in access, but those access gaps don’t fit the order of the longevity gaps—as a close proxy, in 2024, the insurance rates go Asian > White > Black > Hispanic. These race results and the sex ones combine to produce a picture that cannot be explained by a simple health care-centric story. In fact, when it comes to things the health care system can plausibly intervene on, America is usually the highest-performing country—at least cross-sectionally—or it’s very nearly so. When it comes to lifespan and America’s lag despite its riches, look elsewhere than health care.

There were one or two accidents every week

August 27th, 2026

Biohazard by Ken AlibekBy 1986, Ken Alibek explains (in Biohazard), they had over 900 people at the bioweapons plant, and more were coming every month:

There were one or two accidents every week.

Once Gennady Lepyoshkin, the chief of our biosafety directorate, reported that a technician had been infected with anthrax in a lab that was supposed to be sterile. He had an abrasion on his neck, one of the most dangerous places in the body through which to contract cutaneous anthrax. When the neck swells, it interferes with breathing.

At first we treated him with streptomycin and penicillin, the most effective antibiotics for use against cutaneous anthrax, but a painful swelling erupted on his chest and spread over his body, making it increasingly difficult for him to breathe. Within three days, death seemed inevitable. A gloomy message was being prepared for Moscow when, in a final attempt to save his life, we gave him an abnormally high dose of anthrax antiserum. The shock dose worked: he began to recover.

The technician’s narrow escape drove home the potency of our new weapon. Our powdered and liquid formulations of anthrax were three times as strong as the weapons that had been manufactured at Sverdlovsk. It would take only five kilograms of the Anthrax 836 developed at the Kazakhstan base to infect half the people living in a square kilometer of territory; the Sverdlovsk weapon needed at least fifteen kilograms to achieve the same impact.

[…]

Our factory could turn out two tons of anthrax a day in a process as reliable and efficient as producing tanks, trucks, cars, or Coca-Cola.

The cultural anthropology students went up one after the other and explained what they were going to find

August 26th, 2026

Robert Lynch started graduate school in 2006:

Like a lot of anthropology departments at the time, Rutgers was split between the biological anthropologists and cultural anthropologists. Although we were all supposedly in the same department and required to take some of the same classes, it was like putting the math and the art departments together — except they hated each other.

[…]

In our second year, all the graduate students had to present their hypotheses at something called the Dissertation Proposal Defence. It was a crucial moment in the process of getting your PhD in anthropology. All of the biological anthropologists presented research questions that they were planning to test.

[…]

I was already used to the massive differences between the two wings of anthropology, and familiar with the jargon employed by the cultural wing (embodied subjectivity, intersectionality, structural violence, hegemonic knowledge production), but I was still taken aback when the cultural anthropology students went up one after the other and explained what they were going to find. Not what they were hoping to understand, or learn, or test, or discover, but what they were going to find.

[…]

There were no questions. No hypotheses. No data to be collected, let alone analysed. There were claims about arguments being “based on the ethnographic evidence”, but no evidence was ever presented. Conclusions were drawn from a series of assertions.