Either we reorient our system to post-Enlightenment principles or we risk staggering into the Endarkenment

October 15th, 2026

That liberal democracy is in a state of terminal decline Martin Gurri takes to be beyond dispute:

Like Alice in the rabbit hole, those of us who dwell in democratic societies suffer from a nauseating sense of falling without ever landing on solid ground. The usual suspects blamed for this tumble—populism, inequality, the economy—are mere surface symptoms of an internal breakdown. We have arrived at the conclusion of a world-historical cycle. Liberal democracy is the procedural embodiment of Enlightenment ideology—and after two centuries of dominance, that ideology has lost all purchase and stands utterly exhausted.

Radical alternatives confront us. Either we reorient our system to post-Enlightenment principles or we risk staggering into the nihilist’s paradise I have called the Endarkenment.

Enlightenment philosophers placed their faith in reason and science. These are purely critical disciplines: liberal propagandists wielded criticism like a scalpel to dissect conservative laggards and utopian revolutionaries alike. Once triumphant at the “end of history,” liberal democracy turned the knife on itself—a process of self-criticism and self-doubt that has shredded its own ideals to ribbons.

The positive values inherited from the Enlightenment—equality, individualism, compassion—were always parasitic on Christianity. But Christianity, like all religions, has no place in a universe ruled by reason and science. Nietzsche long ago brought us the troubling news: the Christian God is dead. Oblivious to the implications of this calamity, liberal democracy kept marching like a cartoon character over the edge of the abyss, until the laws of moral gravity asserted themselves. So began the Great Fall.

Criticism is a force for progress so long as there are blatant irrationalities, like slavery or Jim Crow discrimination, to overcome. But under the hammer of Enlightenment ideals, modern society has been flattened, centralized, and rationalized. Deprived of obvious superstitions to debunk and totalitarian rivals to defeat, liberal democracy has been revealed in all its internal contradictions.

One such contradiction, I contend, pits the cherished principle of equality against the chosen few who actually practice reason and science: let’s call this the problem of the elites.

A second contradiction finds freedom of the press and of opinion arrayed against the need to protect objective truth: call it the problem of information.

Finally, freedom of worship and the life of the spirit collide head-on with the materialist criticism favored by Enlightenment ideology: the problem of meaning.

Each of these contradictions could prove fatal to the democratic project, but none is insoluble, and the search for solutions offers an opportunity for renewal.

The CDC advised her to take her temperature

October 14th, 2026

Biological War by Annie JacobsenOn September 20, 2014, Annie Jacobsen explains (in Biological War), a Liberian man named Thomas Eric Duncan arrived at the Dallas–Fort Worth International Airport — unaware that he was infected with Ebola hemorrhagic fever virus:

Feeling ill after his arrival in Dallas, Duncan went to the Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital emergency room, where he was misdiagnosed with a sinus infection, prescribed antibiotics (which do nothing to kill a virus), and told to take Tylenol. After four hours in the busy emergency room setting, he was discharged.

His condition worsened. Days later, Duncan was taken by ambulance back to the same Dallas hospital that had not admitted him when he first came in, a visitor from West Africa with early Ebola symptoms. By this time, he was displaying late-stage symptoms of Ebola, which include bleeding from the eyes, symptoms that are almost impossible to misdiagnose.

It is not as if the Ebola crisis was unknown to the medical establishment and ordinary American citizens alike in 2014. When Duncan arrived at the Dallas–Fort Worth International Airport, the Ebola epidemic in West Africa already had killed 3,000 people. There had been more than 100 front-page American news stories about the Ebola outbreak happening on the other side of the world. “A substantial portion of the American public [was] concerned about being infected with Ebola virus disease (EVD)” at the time, according to a prominent study on media attention.

It is not as if the Ebola crisis was unknown to the medical establishment and ordinary American citizens alike in 2014. When Duncan arrived at the Dallas–Fort Worth International Airport, the Ebola epidemic in West Africa already had killed 3,000 people. There had been more than 100 front-page American news stories about the Ebola outbreak happening on the other side of the world. “A substantial portion of the American public [was] concerned about being infected with Ebola virus disease (EVD)” at the time, according to a prominent study on media attention.

[…]

60 to 92 percent of Ebola victims bleed to death, with blood pouring out of the eyes, ears, nose, and skin.

[…]

At the time of his travel, Liberia accounted for roughly 45 percent of Ebola deaths. That no government officials, in either Belgium or the United States, asked Duncan if he’d been in the Ebola Hot Zone before they granted him entry may seem implausible, in hindsight. But this is what happened.

Because Ebola is not airborne, none of the other passengers on the flights Duncan traveled on, or at the airports he visited, became infected with Ebola. But he did infect two healthcare workers at the Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital in Dallas, where he ended up in the ICU before dying a horrific death.

[…]

In 2014, diagnostics were such that Ebola could not be detected in the bloodstream until symptoms emerged. Because Nurse Vinson had been caring for an Ebola patient in the hospital’s ICU, she consulted the CDC about her airplane travel plans, asking if she should get on her flight.

The CDC advised her to take her temperature.

When she reported she had a slight fever of 99.5 degrees Fahrenheit (37.5 degrees Celsius), a CDC official noted that its threshold for fever is 100.4 degrees Fahrenheit (38 degrees Celsius) and cleared Nurse Vinson to fly on a commercial aircraft. Upon returning from her trip to Ohio, Amber Joy Vinson tested positive for Ebola.

The Dan-T is reportedly based on the Dan-M aerial target

October 13th, 2026

Russia’s new Dan-T loitering munition is effectively a small cruise missile:

It has a slender cylindrical fuselage with swept wings and a conventional tail, rather than the broad delta-wing shape characteristic of the Geran family. Released images of the aircraft make it appear to be over 3 m long with a wingspan of approximately 2 m. It has a launch weight of 268 kg, making it significantly smaller and lighter than conventional cruise missiles. The Dan-T is reportedly powered by a domestically produced Russian MD-120 turbojet engine. The system is also being outfitted with upgraded electronics intended to improve its resilience against Ukrainian electronic warfare systems.

Dan-T Loitering Munition

Unlike many Russian loitering munitions, the Dan-T is designed to be air-launched from either fixed-wing aircraft or helicopters, including the Su-34, Su-57, and Mi-28, and can also be integrated with foreign aircraft. A ground-based launching system has also been developed, increasing the tactical utility of the weapon. After release, the Dan-T operates as a fire-and-forget weapon, autonomously navigating to a pre-programmed target using a combination of inertial navigation and satellite guidance. It reportedly flies at low altitude while following the terrain and avoiding obstacles. As it approaches its target, the Dan-T abruptly gains altitude before diving vertically onto the target from above.

The Dan-T has a reported range of 450 km and a maximum speed of 500 km/h. This makes it considerably faster than the propeller-driven Geran-2, while the jet-powered Geran-3 provides a closer comparison in speed and the newer Geran-5 can reach approximately 600 km/h. However, all three Geran variants have greater ranges than the Dan-T, with the Geran-5 capable of traveling nearly twice as far. The Dan-T makes up for its shorter range with a 130 kg warhead, which is larger than those typically carried by the Geran series. Its range, speed, and payload remain significantly below those of Russia’s conventional cruise and hypersonic missiles, but the Dan-T is considerably less expensive and requires fewer resources to produce.

The Dan-T is reportedly based on the Dan-M aerial target, a jet-powered drone used to train Russian air-defense units by replicating incoming aircraft and cruise missiles. […] As an aerial target, the Dan-M was designed to be relatively inexpensive and has an established supply chain capable of supporting mass production.

These were live-action exercises involving thousands of participants, not just tabletop discussions

October 12th, 2026

Biological War by Annie JacobsenBack in the mid-to late 1990s, Annie Jacobsen explains (in Biological War), Congress and the White House launched a series of domestic preparedness programs requiring the federal government to regularly sponsor full-scale biological-attack exercises — so America’s federal, state, and local law enforcement and first responders would be aware of how to deal with a catastrophe of this magnitude, “in advance of an actual incident”:

These were live-action exercises involving thousands of participants, not just tabletop discussions.

[…]

One of the first unclassified exercises was called TOPOFF 2000, a full-scale, multi-agency, multi-jurisdictional simulation (TOPOFF stands for Top Officials). One part of the scenario involved an attack by terrorists who covertly deployed pneumonic plague inside the Denver Performing Arts Center, in downtown Denver, Colorado.

The scenario’s authors based their infection rates on pneumonic plague’s natural contagiousness of R0 2.4 on average.

[…]

The exercise abruptly ends after the fourth generation of infected. What you don’t learn, unless you really dig into the details, is that the reason the exercise stops is because the Denver healthcare system essentially collapses. In the after-action summary, TOPOFF’s coauthor, Dr. Thomas V. Inglesby and his colleagues, write, “Health department officials became exhausted and a feeling of hopelessness quickly overwhelmed a number of [those] participating.”

[…]

Supplies ran out.

First responders could not triage victims fast enough.

Hospitals were overrun.

There was widespread confusion about who was in charge at the federal level. Inglesby found jurisdictional overlaps between the Department of Justice (the law enforcement lead), FEMA (in charge of consequence management), Health and Human Services and CDC (in charge of co-managing public health), and the Defense Department (providing military support).

JP-7 is a unique fuel

October 11th, 2026

When he worked at NASA in the 1990s, Tim Conners was the lead propulsion engineer for the agency’s Blackbird program. He discusses getting the SR-71 flying again:

JP-7. People ask about the fuel. I think it’s pretty well known that NASA had a huge amount of JP-7 stockpiled that they received from the Air Force back in the early ’90s. So much that it was in a dedicated tank, like one of the giant jet fuel tanks at Edwards Air Force Base. You know, the tanks up on the ridge.

From what I understand, that supply unfortunately was discarded about 20 years ago, and JP-7 is a unique fuel. Obviously, low volatility. When I poked at what might be the way forward there, it didn’t sound like that was a showstopper. I got the impression that there’s been dialogue underway with refineries for a replacement or a surrogate that would work. So I went from being deflated, hearing that the fuel was gone, to being encouraged that potentially there was a surrogate workaround.

[…]

So that was one of the questions I asked is whether or not that formulation exists still. The answer I got back was that essentially a refinery should be able to recreate a suitable surrogate. If you think about it, JP-7 was unique in that it had a very low volatility characteristic.

What I’ve learned about Jet A from some of the ramjet work that I’ve been doing is that it has a ridiculously low volatility too, of course, by design. So I don’t know that JP-7 is that far apart from the chemical characteristics of a Jet A-class fuel, JP-8-type fuel. JP-8 was a significant change from JP-4, so the Air Force was using JP-4 in their fleet, and then moved to JP-8 to be consistent in the ’90s with the Navy with their formulations. That’s a lower volatility fuel, and at NASA we had to recharacterize the flight performance of all of our jets with JP-8, but it worked fine.

We were concerned about operability – that we were going to have flameouts and engine relight and flight relay problems. Those did not materialize, so I don’t want to oversimplify it, but I am thinking that you might be able to take an existing Jet A and with the right additives knock down the volatility to a level that’s safe for flying in the Blackbird.

[…]

There were dedicated JP-7 tankers for the Blackbird. I don’t know if they can take an existing system and flush it. It would depend on the formulation, right? JP-7 was notorious for its unseemly characteristics. It was toxic.

I had a shirt that got dripped on when I was standing under the wing of the Blackbird once, and I had to throw it out. I could not get the stink out of that shirt from the JP-7. It was a weird fuel. So if you can get one that’s more aligned with the fuels used in the service, then I don’t believe that’s going to be a showstopper as far as tanker support, but you do know tanker support is going to be required for that airplane.

[…]

I just remember it turning my stomach. Like I kept smelling something as the day went on, and I reached over and saw a stain on my shoulder. I don’t recall what happened the rest of the day, but I just remember being repulsed by the odor and then not being able to get it out when I washed the shirt.

JP-7 was developed at Pratt and Whitney by master chemist Clarence Brown (CB) Eichman in 1955 for the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) for use in the Blackbird;s predecessor, the Lockheed A-12:

JP-7 is a compound mixture composed primarily of hydrocarbons; including alkanes, cycloalkanes, alkylbenzenes, indanes/tetralins, and naphthalenes; with addition of fluorocarbons to increase its lubricant properties, an oxidizing agent to make it burn more efficiently, and a caesium-containing compound known as A-50, which is to aid in disguising the radar and infrared signatures of the exhaust plume. A-50 has been hypothesised to be synthesised by addition of caesium carbonate to dialkyl phosphite. The SR-71 Blackbirds used approximately 36,000–44,000 pounds (16,000–20,000 kg) of fuel per hour of flight.

JP-7 is unusual in that it is not a conventional distillate fuel, but is created from special blending stocks in order to have very low (<3%) concentration of highly volatile components like benzene or toluene, and almost no sulfur, oxygen, and nitrogen impurities. It has a low vapor pressure, and high thermal oxidation stability. The fuel must operate across a wide range of temperatures: from near freezing at high altitude, to the high temperatures of the airframe and engine parts that are being cooled by it at high speed. Its volatility must be low enough to make it flash-resistant at these high temperatures.

The very low volatility, and relative unwillingness of JP-7 to be ignited, required triethylborane (TEB) to be injected into the engine in order to initiate combustion, and allow afterburner operation in flight. The SR-71 had a limited capacity for TEB, and therefore had a limited number of available 'shots' of TEB (usually 16) for restarts, and those had to be managed carefully on long-duration flights with multiple stages of relatively low-altitude air refueling and normal high-altitude cruise flight.

The CDC collects biosurveillance information on Americans from 7,200 healthcare facilities

October 10th, 2026

Biological War by Annie Jacobsen Back in 2003, in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, Annie Jacobsen explains (in Biological War), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention established a multibillion-dollar national syndromic surveillance system called BioSense:

Under the BioSense platform, the CDC collects biosurveillance information on Americans from 7,200 healthcare facilities across fifty states, Washington, D.C., and Guam. This includes near-real-time data from emergency departments, urgent care clinics, ambulatory care centers, and other registered facilities, all of which feeds into centralized servers at the CDC for rapid analysis.

[…]

But the program does not include any data from any of the nation’s homeless shelters or clinics. None. This means that the entirety of America’s ~800,000-person homeless population is left out of the CDC’s national syndromic surveillance program.

[…]

Across America, the phenomenon of mass overdose in homeless camps has gone from rare to commonplace. In July 2025, police in Baltimore responded to a “mass casualty” incident in an open-air drug market, after twenty-seven people overdosed on fentanyl mixed with what was reported to be some kind of powerful sedative. Thirteen medical units and four fire trucks were sent to triage people on-site, with dozens of officers trying to locate more potential victims.

[…]

More than twenty years ago, the U.S. Army’s Edgewood Chemical Biological Center wrote a handbook for police officers describing what to expect in a biological incident or attack. It acknowledges a merciless truth. Unlike U.S. military personnel, who are trained and equipped to enter contaminated battlespaces in protective gear and gas masks, local law enforcement officers and first responders will face biological threats unprotected.

Since the publication of the U.S. Army’s guide, hundreds of billions of dollars have been spent on what the government calls BioDefense.

[…]

Biological attacks are invisible. Silent and odorless, they won’t be detected until people start dying and contagion levels are already out of control.

An aerosolized pathogen is the ultimate nightmare scenario. Humans must breathe air to stay alive; with an airborne pathogen incident or attack, breathing becomes the primary dispersal mechanism of death.

Law enforcement, first responders, doctors, and nurses will be exposed. The people best equipped to respond and help will become sick and die, leaving few professionals left to care for the sick and the dying.

Mass panic will likely collapse the medical system. The sudden onset of dying people will lead to a crushing wave of infected people and not infected people (“ the worried well”), overwhelming local emergency medical systems before diagnoses can be made. The noninfected will become infected while waiting for aid.

[…]

The system is flawed to the point of breaking. A 2022 after-action report following a terrorist-attack exercise in Los Angeles found that L.A. County’s Emergency Operations Center was “unable to coordinate the dissemination of emergency public information” effectively, and that it “did not take any corrective action to establish an alternate method” after it was clear the system had failed.

[…]

The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health is “[ a] corrupt, bloated, inefficient bureaucracy,” the Los Angeles–based AIDS Healthcare Foundation insists, and it is not alone in its assessment. A 2025 audit of the agency dedicated to Los Angeles public health found that hundreds of millions of dollars of Los Angeles’s $ 875-million-a-year budget for the homeless (which has since been raised to $ 953 million for fiscal year 2025–2026) had been spent recklessly and without transparency. “It’s now been verified by two audits that [the city] cannot produce an account for the work that they are funded to do,” City Council member Monica Rodriguez told the Associated Press, “and that, to me, is an egregious breach of taxpayer trust.”

Human cones can perceive UV light if given the chance

October 9th, 2026

As Paul Cézanne once said, “Monet is only an eye — but my god, what an eye”:

In the 1910s, however, Monet’s vaunted eyes came under threat. He developed cataracts and, painfully, slowly, began going blind. He admitted to friends that he would likely have to quit painting soon, and the thought crushed him: for Monet, life without painting was no life at all.

There was one hope, however—surgery to remove the cataracts. Unfortunately, this procedure was not the routine operation of today; it carried great risk. Monet had in fact seen his friend and fellow artist Mary Cassatt effectively go blind after two failed cataract surgeries; she never picked up a brush again.

Eventually, though, with his artistic life at stake, Monet screwed up the courage to go under the knife. And remarkably, the surgery introduced a whole new phase in his career, because it seemingly changed how his vision worked. Already a master of color, he may have gained the ability to see color beyond the normal human spectrum—and peer into the realm of the ultraviolet.

[…]

Cataracts arise when proteins build up on the lens of the eye, proteins that turn the lens yellow and block or scatter light. People can develop cataracts for multiple reasons, including old age, but with Monet, some historians speculate that the lead-based paints he used might have contributed.

[…]

Because cataracts can cause glare, he had to wear floppy straw hats outdoors now. And he could paint only near dawn and dusk, when the light was gentlest.

[…]

Instead of the fine, intricate strokes he used before, his brushstrokes now became coarse and thick. There was no more light touch, no more airiness. His color schemes changed as well. He especially had trouble seeing “cool” colors, such as blue and green: water lilies looked brownish now, and ponds looked like stagnant swamps.

As things got worse, Monet tried to make up for the muted greens and blues by dialing other colors up—fiery reds and yellows.

[…]

But things got so bad that, by 1922, Monet could barely tell certain hues apart. He had to label his paint tubes with big block letters, and then put the paint in the same spot on his palette every day simply to find it.

Eventually, Monet had no choice but to face the dreaded surgery. It took place in January 1923. The doctors operated on one eye only (most sources say the right), so in case something went wrong, he’d have a backup eye. During recovery, he had to lie absolutely still for days, his head jammed between heavy sandbags to make sure he couldn’t move. Then for weeks afterward he had to wear bandages around his eye, which itched like crazy.

[…]

His eye healed, and in 1924 he finally got a new pair of glasses specially crafted for postoperative cataract patients. The glasses were expensive: a single pair cost as much as a four-room luxury apartment.

[…]

Dogs can’t see red because their cones can’t detect it. In contrast, human cones can perceive UV light if given the chance. It’s faint, but it’s there.

What prevents us from seeing UV light is our lenses, which filter it out. But when Monet’s lens was removed, that constraint was lifted. His work from this period suggests he may have been able to perceive that mysterious bee purple. To insects, water lilies would have a violet aura, and sure enough, Monet started rendering the flowers with overtones of blue and purple.

Water Lilies by Monet

Eye surgeons still remove the lenses of cataract patients today, and usually replace them with artificial lenses that block UV light. But prior to the 1980s the lenses did not block out UV rays, and not everyone gets the lenses anyway. As a result, such people can often perceive that secret world of spotted butterflies and swirly flowers. More prosaically, people at pubs suddenly notice the ultraviolet black lights that bartenders use to weed out counterfeit bills.

I stumbled across this phenomenon years ago.

The United States used to have a plague vaccine

October 8th, 2026

Biological War by Annie JacobsenThe United States does not have a vaccine for plague, Annie Jacobsen explains (in Biological War), for reasons that are complicated:

Russia’s vaccine, called Live Plague Vaccine, or LPV, is understood to have been created from an attenuated, or weakened, strain of plague. “For the past almost eight decades of usage,” writes Russian vaccine expert Valentina A. Feodorova, “millions of [Russian] people have been immunized with this LPV.”

Russia has a long history of plague epidemics. The Russian Ministry of Health lists Y. pestis bacteria as an “Extremely Dangerous to Human Populations” pathogen on its version of the CDC’s Tier 1 Select Agent list. Because of this, Russians generally embrace anti-plague-vaccine campaigns. There are “no recorded live vaccine-related deaths or serious post-vaccination complications,” Feodorova adds, which may or may not be true. “Reactions are generally mild and of short duration,” she says.

Plague epidemics tend to occur in remote regions of Siberia, in border areas with Mongolia and China. Large plague outbreaks in Russian cities are uncommon. During the Cold War, there were at least five research institutes dedicated to what Russia calls anti-plague work. As we know from Igor Domaradskij’s writings, many of these institutions performed dual-use biological weapons work.

The United States used to have a plague vaccine, but not anymore. During the Vietnam War, soldiers were given the EV76 Y. pestis vaccine, but some of them got sick and it was discontinued.

[…]

In 1999, the FDA renewed plague vaccine efforts but discontinued use after EV76 caused severe reactions in nonhuman primates. Some of the apes being used as medical test subjects contracted fatal plague and died.

“There’s another great vaccine that’s been in development at USAMRIID for a while,” Dr. Heine tells us; he worked on this program for the army, fifteen years ago. “But this vaccine is lost in bureaucracy and is nowhere near being ready for human trials—that I’m aware of,” he says, a fact that remains largely unknown outside defense medicine circles.

In Virginia, an NRO intelligence officer uploads the images of the Russian truck convoy into the classified JWICS and SIPRNet (Secret Internet Protocol Router Network) for the intelligence community to see, and analyze.

It used to be the case that you could rely on somebody who went to an Ivy or Ivy-equivalent to be top notch

October 7th, 2026

Key figures in Silicon Valley are betting on alternatives to higher education:

“It used to be the case that you could rely on somebody who went to an Ivy or Ivy-equivalent to be top notch,” said Jordan Hirsch, who runs Palantir’s semester-long intensive Meritocracy Fellowship, which accepts high school graduates.“But that’s not the case anymore… we suspected that there was a lot of talent being missed.”

Palantir has become a pioneer of the effort to offer alternatives to the conventional four-year undergraduate degree — and now it’s planning to double the size of its third semester-long intensive.

The company’s four-month fellowship begins with a five-week crash course in Western civilization — studying philosophers like Aristotle and heroes like Churchill — with classes taught by visiting professors, journalists, and researchers alongside executives such as CEO Alex Karp and CTO Shyam Sankar.

In addition to spending the five weeks studying the classics and history, students also build software and later embed with a Palantir team for their assignments.

“What we’re trying to build is what we think the college environment should be — and do it in five weeks,” Hirsch said. “The mission is to support, sustain, and resuscitate the most important institutions, both commercial and government, in the West, in the United States in particular.”

He wants students to leave with an appreciation for “individual dignity, individual liberty, human agency, and… a real love for America, for all of its imperfections.”

Hirsch estimated that nearly 700 people applied last year for 26 slots. Applications for the next class open Oct. 15, and Palantir hopes to take as many as 50 fellows.

Some students are choosing this program in lieu of attending college, while others plan to attend after. Unlike college, which can now cost upwards of $100,000 a year, Palantir actually pays those in its class a monthly stipend of $5,400 intended to cover the cost of housing. Several fellows said it’s a refreshing alternative to four-year universities and student loans.

[…]

The newly announced Horowitz Andreessen Academy, incubated by a16z, plans to bring aspiring founders and tech operators fresh out of high school to San Francisco for a tuition-free one-year fellowship beginning in fall 2027.

Students will build their own startup ideas and projects while studying subjects ranging from AI systems design to sales and fundraising, taught by founders and operators.

The University of Austin — not to be confused with UT Austin — launched in 2024 and was co-founded by Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale, alongside other conservative backers, is another alternative. The non-profit is a four-year college that pairs the Great Books of the Western tradition with training in mathematics, science and AI.

“Unlike most other universities, we are not neutral about America,” the school’s president, Carlos Carvalho, told The Post. “The University of Austin was founded to form graduates who can build the technologies of the future and know why they must build it in America, and for America.”

Its students study Homer, the Bible and the Federalist Papers alongside AI and computer science. The idea isn’t just to teach students how to build powerful tools, but what those tools should serve.

“America is going into the most consequential technological era, and yet our country’s universities are failing to teach students what principles these powerful tools should serve,” Carvalho said.

Biological war can begin with an accident

October 6th, 2026

Biological War by Annie JacobsenBiological war can begin with an accident, Annie Jacobsen explains (in Biological War):

A large-scale attack with a biological weapon can set off a pandemic, but so can a lab leak.

“The risk of a pandemic from a lab escape is not hypothetical,” Andy Weber tells us. He’s one of a small number of U.S. officials to have ever visited the Vector Institute, which he did in the 1990s. Weber has firsthand knowledge of the germs stored inside the freezers at Vector, many of which have been weaponized to kill population sets in the most diabolical of ways.

[…]

“We have eyes on all critical facilities,” retired colonel Julian Chesnutt, a former Defense Intelligence Agency officer, tells us, “near continuous coverage of all ‘facilities of interest’ across the globe.”

[…]

Airborne killers like plague, smallpox, and genetically modified flu will have a high transmission rate, high fear factor, and potential global impact. Fluid-contact killers like Ebola, Marburg, and Lassa fever will have a lower rate of spread, but similarly high lethality and panic components. Environmentally persistent spores like anthrax will mean limited, person-to-person spread, but long-term contamination and psychological issues.

[…]

“If you can deal with a lab leak in the first twelve to twenty-four hours, the outcome can be drastically different,” Dr. Robert Kadlec tells us. Kadlec, a retired air force physician, is a long-serving presidential advisor on bioterrorism. During the Covid pandemic, he was a primary driver of Operation Warp Speed, the government-led effort that developed, manufactured, and distributed 977 million doses of the Covid-19 vaccine across the United States.

[…]

If a deadly pathogen has been accidently released, sharing information—or even asking for help—makes containment far more likely. Containment of an infected population through quarantine, contact tracing, and other measures allows public health officials to stop a pandemic in its tracks. “Koltsovo is not Beijing,” Dr. Cameron says of this [fictional] scenario, meaning quarantining Koltsovo’s 20,000 residents would be possible, whereas quarantining a city like Beijing, with a population of 22 million, would never work. But Dr. Cameron’s comments also allude to a much greater existential threat. One that hangs like a sword of Damocles over all of us. Many of today’s BSL-4 labs have been built in or near cities with millions of people.

[…]

Because all biological weapons programs are illegal, all biological weapons programs are clandestine, or disguised as vaccine or other kinds of research.

She was hospitalized Tuesday with symptoms of severe pneumonia in Shelekhov

October 5th, 2026

If you’ve been reading about biowarfare, you really don’t want to see that nearly 200 people are under observation after an Irkutsk lab worker died from plague:

Health authorities in Siberia’s Irkutsk region have placed nearly 200 people under medical observation after a laboratory worker died from plague, according to media reports and a statement by a regional leader Friday.

Alexei Tsydenov, head of the neighboring republic of Buryatia, confirmed that the woman had died from an unspecified form of plague. Irkutsk officials had previously described the illness only as a “particularly dangerous infection.”

Citing information from Russia’s consumer safety watchdog Rospotrebnadzor and Buryatia’s government, Tsydenov said the woman had not visited his republic and that her infection was unrelated to the region.

“There are no plague outbreaks in the republic, including in areas bordering Mongolia,” he wrote on social media.

The woman was identified as Daria Sh., a 27- or 28-year-old employee of the Irkutsk anti-plague institute, by the exiled news outlet Lyudi Baikala (People of Baikal) and pro-Kremlin broadcaster REN TV.

She reportedly told medical staff that she had accidentally broken a test tube containing live bacteria while collecting samples for testing.

She was hospitalized Tuesday with symptoms of severe pneumonia in Shelekhov, a town near the regional capital of Irkutsk. She was placed on a ventilator and died Thursday, according to the reports.

An employee of the Irkutsk anti-plague institute would be vaccinated against plague. Russia has a couple plague vaccines; the U.S. has none. A known plague infection would be treated immediately with antibiotics, too. Naturally occurring plague has an R0 just over 1, so it spreads until people take basic measures like social distancing, masking, etc.

Gain-of-function research quickly became normalized within government-funded science

October 4th, 2026

Biological War by Annie JacobsenAfter the anthrax scare in 2001, Annie Jacobsen explains (in Biological War), gain-of-function research quickly became normalized within government-funded science:

Agencies such as the National Institutes of Health and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases funded this kind of experimental research with gusto, not just in labs across America, but also in BSL-3 and BSL-4 labs overseas, including in places like Wuhan, China.

“The benefits of such [gain-of-function] experiments and the resulting knowledge outweigh the risks,” argued Dr. Anthony Fauci in a 2012 paper. Fauci served as the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the time. During the Covid pandemic, he served as chief medical advisor to Presidents Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

Critics of gain-of-function cried foul, citing the Australian mousepox experiment of 2001 and the H5N1 ferret flu experiments conducted in the Netherlands and the United States in 2011–2012 as examples of all that could go wrong. In the mousepox experiment, a relatively simple genetic tweak inadvertently turned a mild virus into a weapon that killed previously vaccinated host mice, proving the nightmare reality that gain-of-function can easily erase existing immunity. In the H5N1 ferret flu experiments, scientists took one of the deadliest influenza viruses ever observed in humans and taught it to spread through the air, demonstrating how a pandemic-causing airborne pathogen can be easily engineered in a lab.

[…]

In 2014, the Obama administration imposed a temporary federal pause on certain gain-of-function studies.

[…]

Gain-of-function was reclassified under a new term known as “Potential Pandemic Pathogen Care and Oversight,” or P3CO, shifting the debate from prohibition to risk management.

[…]

And then came the Covid pandemic, thrusting gain-of-function experiments into the global spotlight. As facts emerged, millions of people began to question whether Covid’s SARS-CoV-2 virus arose naturally, from bats, or had been genetically engineered in Wuhan’s secretive BSL-3 and BSL-4 labs.

[…]

Governments around the world continue to fund this kind of high-risk research today, almost always with the same central argument in play. That worst-case-scenario pathogen experiments conducted inside a BSL-3 or BSL-4 lab are essential to preventing a worst-case-scenario incident or attack from happening in the real world.

[…]

A 2025 global survey identified 110 BSL-4 labs in thirty-four countries and 3,515 BSL-3 labs across 149 countries, possibly more.

The idea is to put yourself into a state that’s both physically and mentally exhausting

October 3rd, 2026

If mental fatigue limits physical performance, then athletes can be trained to become resilient to it:

“The idea is to put yourself into a state that’s both physically and mentally exhausting, by combining cognitive and physical training,” Ring said. In practice, this means 15 to 20 minutes of cognitive exercises before or after a long sports session, a few times per week.

BET is usually done using an app. A series of stimuli — numbers, letters, shapes — appear on the screen and the athlete must answer rapid-fire questions about each one. It tests things like reaction time and decision making, and also memory, by asking whether the current stimuli are the same as a few exercises ago. Repeat for 10 to 20 minutes, to the point of mental exhaustion.

Interest in BET has grown sharply in recent years, driven by a broader cultural push of optimization, a rising focus on mental health in sport, and the post-Covid boom in endurance events such as marathons and triathlons. “Most of the elite athletes train pretty similarly, fuel similarly, rest similarly,” Ring said. “There aren’t many things you can do to get a true advantage over your competition.”

However, he warns that BET is far from a miracle solution. “The interest is growing, but very few actually stick to it,” Ring added. “BET is hard. We’ve had pro-athletes throw their phones at a wall.”

A biodefense industrial complex emerged

October 2nd, 2026

Biological War by Annie JacobsenAs if what had happened on 9/11 wasn’t terrorizing enough, Annie Jacobsen explains (in Biological War), just days later, a biological weapons attack unfurled across the East Coast and in the state of Florida:

Envelopes laced with weaponized anthrax bacteria were sent through the U.S. mail to two U.S. senators and the offices of several national news organizations, including ABC, CBS, and NBC. When one of these anthrax-filled letters, addressed to Senate majority leader Tom Daschle, was opened inside the mailroom of the Hart Senate Office Building (part of the U.S. Capitol complex), the country suddenly realized it was under biological attack.

The Capitol was shut down. Thousands of congressional staff were tested. Major U.S. postal facilities closed. Twenty-two people in four states contracted anthrax disease. Five died. Horrific, yes, but a mass-casualty attack it was not. Unlike the 9/11 attacks, which were quickly attributed to Al Qaeda, responsibility for the anthrax letters, still contentiously debated, has never formally been solved.

Inside the federal government, the anthrax attacks weren’t just a wake-up call; they became a call to arms. A biological agent could easily be used as a weapon—this kind of an attack was cheap to mount, difficult to attribute, and capable of producing massive impact.

[…]

In 2004, Congress launched Project BioShield—a federal program designed to accelerate the research and development of vaccines and other medical countermeasures—pouring billions of dollars into biodefense.

[…]

This influx of investments fueled innovative vaccine platforms, antiviral drugs, and state-of-the-art diagnostic tools, fundamentally reshaping the nation’s scientific landscape. Across Washington, D.C., and beyond, the power center shifted toward secretive biodefense research, much of it classified. Transparency all but disappeared.

A biodefense industrial complex emerged. And with it, a vast expansion of high- and maximum-containment Biosafety Level 3 (BSL-3) and Biosafety Level 4 (BSL-4) laboratories across the United States, and around the world.

[…]

Before September 2001, the U.S. government operated just two BSL-4 laboratories, one military, at Fort Detrick in Maryland, and one civilian, at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, Georgia. After 9/11, the number of BSL-3 and BSL-4 labs surged. Over the next five years, dozens, then hundreds, then more than 1,000 of these new, high- and maximum-containment biosecurity labs were built. A congressional audit in 2007 found there were at least fifteen BSL-4 labs and 1,356 BSL-3 labs in the United States alone. Even more alarming, no one was monitoring any of it.

[…]

“‘Gain-of-function’ is a euphemism,” insists the former presidential advisor Andy Weber. “‘Gain-of-function research’ is another way of saying ‘biological weapons engineering,’” he warns.

Dr. Thomas Ehrhard, former special assistant to the deputy secretary of defense, has even harsher words for gain-of-function, almost certainly because of the knowledge he has acquired running classified biological war games at the Pentagon.

“Gain-of-function is evil,” says Ehrhard. No nuance there.

Inmates were given a slice of bread and three gills of water

October 1st, 2026

In The American prison experiment, C.J. Ciaramella mentions, “Inmates were given a slice of bread and three gills of water (about one and a half cups) a day.”

That “about” caught my eye, because the gill isn’t a metric measure; it’s from the same customary system as the ounce and cup — and the barrel and hogshead. In fact, the gill is exactly four ounces, or half a cup.

What I never realized from occasionally reading the word in old books though is that it is not pronounced like the “breathing” organ of a fish. The g is soft, pronounced like a j.