Children playing in the green kindergartens had less disease-causing bacteria

November 4th, 2025

Across Finland, 43 daycare centers have been awarded a total of €1m to re-wild playgrounds to increase children’s exposure to microscopic biodiversity – such as bacteria and fungi – in nature:

The compost is fed with old leaves and weeds, and then used to grow beetroots, carrots, cucumbers and potatoes, courgettes and chillies. Now parsley is the only thing left – winter is drawing in and everything else has been eaten. The children, however, remain outside.

The plants, dead wood and soil in the daycare centre have all been specially selected for their rich micro-biodiversity. They have also dug up and imported a giant live carpet of forest floor, 20-40cm deep and 10 metres square. It has blueberries, lingonberries and moss growing on it, to encourage the children to forage, find bugs and learn about nature.

“This area has not been forested for 200 years so this is a substitute,” says Sinkkonen. In a wetland area they can balance on rocks and play among a different selection of plants. Five years ago, it was a gravel car park.

This kindergarten was included in a two-year study looking at how biodiversity enhancements affect the microbial composition of children’s skin, saliva and faeces. The study was the first of its kind. Blood samples were taken to look at immune defences, and a short questionnaire about infectious diseases was filled out every three months. In total, 75 children aged between three and five across 10 urban daycare centres took part in the study. It compared “rewilded” daycare centres such as this with others covered in asphalt, sand, gravel and plastic mats.

A year later, it found children playing in the green kindergartens had less disease-causing bacteria — such as Streptococcus — on their skin, and stronger immune defences. Their gut microbiota showed reduced levels of Clostridium bacteria — associated with inflammatory bowel disease, colitis and infections such as sepsis and botulism. Within 28 days it found an increase in cells in the blood — called T regulatory cells — that protect the body from autoimmune diseases. Other research showed that in just two weeks children’s immune system regulation could be improved by playing in a sandpit enriched with garden soil.

Posted in Science | 1 Comment »

Nothing would be more fatal to success than to try to arrive at a perfect plan before taking any important step

November 3rd, 2025

Now It Can Be Told by Leslie M. Groves On October 5, 1942, General Groves paid his first visit to the Metallurgical Laboratory at the University of Chicago, as he explains in Now It Can Be Told: The Story of the Manhattan Project, where he met with Arthur Compton and “about fifteen of his senior men”:

Among them were two other Nobel Prize winners, Enrico Fermi and James Franck, together with the brilliant Hungarian physicists Eugene Wigner and Leo Szilard, and Dr. Norman Hilberry, Compton’s assistant.

[…]

With respect to the amount of fissionable material needed for each bomb, how accurate did they think their estimate was? I expected a reply of “within twenty-five or fifty per cent,” and would not have been greatly surprised at an even greater percentage, but I was horrified when they quite blandly replied that they thought it was correct within a factor of ten.

[…]

My position could well be compared with that of a caterer who is told he must be prepared to serve anywhere between ten and a thousand guests. But after extensive discussion of this point, I concluded that it simply was not possible then to arrive at a more precise answer.

[…]

This uncertainty surrounding the amount of material needed for a bomb plagued us continuously until shortly before the explosion of the Alamogordo test bomb on July 16, 1945. Even after that we could not be sure that Uranium-235 (used in the Hiroshima bomb) would have the same characteristics as plutonium (used in the test and later against Nagasaki), although we knew of no reason why it should be greatly different.

[…]

After the meeting, Compton and I resumed a discussion we had begun earlier with Szilard on how to reduce the number of approaches which were being explored for cooling the pile. Four methods—using helium, air, water and heavy water—were under active study. It was essential that we concentrate on the most promising and more or less abandon work on the others. By the end of the afternoon we settled on helium cooling. But within three months this decision was changed. The design problems early encountered in the comparatively small air-cooled reactor at Clinton indicated that the handling of any gaseous coolant in the much larger Hanford reactors would be very difficult. And as the operation of the Fermi test pite in December had proved that in a properly designed uranium pile water could be used as a coolant, it was adopted for the plutonium reactors we built at Hanford.

I left Chicago feeling that the plutonium process seemed to offer us the greatest chances for success in producing bomb material. Every other process then under consideration depended upon the physical separation of materials having almost infinitesimal differences in their physical properties. Under such circumstances, the design and operation of any industrial processes to accomplish this separation would involve unprecedented difficulties. It was true that the transmutation of uranium by spontaneous chain reaction into usable quantities of plutonium fell entirely outside of existing technical knowledge; yet the rest of the process—the chemical separation of the plutonium from the rest of the material—while extremely difficult and completely unprecedented, did not seem to be impossible.

Up until this time, only infinitesimal quantities of plutonium had been produced, and these by means of the cyclotron, a laboratory method not suitable for production in quantity. And by quantity production of plutonium, I do not mean tons per hour, but rather a few thimblefuls per day. Even by December, 1943, only two milligrams had been produced.

[…]

This was in accord with the general philosophy I had followed throughout the military construction program and to which we adhered consistently in this project; namely, that nothing would be more fatal to success than to try to arrive at a perfect plan before taking any important step.

Posted in Science, War | No Comments »

This shape optimizes surface area while the material composition allows for a much lighter-weight end product

November 2nd, 2025

Researchers from the Technical University of Denmark (DTU) have 3D-printed a lightweight ceramic fuel cell that they call the Monolithic Gyroidal Solid Oxide Cell:

The team implemented a custom design inspired by the natural construction of coral. This shape optimizes surface area while the material composition allows for a much lighter-weight end product. Most fuel cells are comprised of metal, which contributes greatly to their weight. This fuel cell is apparently completely ceramic.

The intricate design is known as a gyroid and is a type of triply periodic minimal surface (shortened to TPMS). These surfaces are intended to provide as much surface area as possible. It’s beneficial, particularly in this case, as the surface provides more optimal heat dispersion. According to the development team, the cell is capable of producing more than a watt of power for each gram of its own weight.

Posted in Technology | 1 Comment »

The most important source of uranium ore during the war years was the Shinkolobwe Mine in the Belgian Congo

November 1st, 2025

Now It Can Be Told by Leslie M. GrovesIt is sobering to realize, General Groves explains in Now It Can Be Told: The Story of the Manhattan Project, that but for a chance meeting between a Belgian and an Englishman a few months before the outbreak of the war, the Allies might not have been first with the atomic bomb:

For the most important source of uranium ore during the war years was the Shinkolobwe Mine in the Belgian Congo and the most important man concerned with its operation was M. Edgar Sengier, the managing director of Union Miniere du Haut Katanga or, as it is usually called, Union Miniere.

In May of 1939, Sengier happened to be in England, in the office of Lord Stonehaven, a fellow director on the Union Miniere Board, when Stonehaven asked him to receive an important scientist. This turned out to be Sir Henry Tizard, the director of the Imperial College of Science and Technology. He asked Sengier to grant the British Government an option on every bit of radium-uranium ore that would be extracted from the Shinkolobwe Mine. Naturally, Sengier refused. As he was leaving, Sir Henry took him by the arm and said most impressively: “Be careful, and never forget that you have in your hands something which may mean a catastrophe to your country and mine if this material were to fall in the hands of a possible enemy.” This remark, coming as it did from a renowned scientist, made a lasting impression on Sengier.

A few days later, he discussed the future possibilities of uranium fission with several French scientists, including Joliot-Curie, a Nobel Prize winner. They proposed a joint effort to attempt the fission of uranium in a bomb to be constructed in the Sahara Desert. Sengier accepted their proposal in principle and agreed to furnish the raw material and to assist in the work. The outbreak of World War II in September, 1939, brought this project to a halt even before it began.

Tizard’s warning and the obvious interest of the French scientists emphasized to Sengier the strategic value of the Katanga ores, which were of exceptional richness, far surpassing in that respect any others that have ever been discovered.

Sengier left Brussels in October of 1939 for New York, where he remained for the rest of the war. From there, he managed the operations of his company, both inside and outside the Belgian Congo, and after the invasion of Belgium in 1940 had to do so without the benefit of any advice from his fellow directors who were in Belgium behind the German lines.

Before his departure from Brussels, he had ordered shipped to the United States and to Great Britain all available radium, about 120 grams, then valued at some $1.8 million. He had also ordered that all uranium ores in stock at the Union Miniere-controlled refining plant in Oolen, Belgium, be sent to the United States. Unfortunately, this order was not complied with promptly; later, owing to the German advance into Belgium, it became impossible to carry it out.

Toward the end of 1940, fearing a possible German invasion of the Belgian Congo, Sengier directed his representatives in Africa to ship discreetly to New York, under whatever ruse was practicable, the very large supply of previously mined uranium ore, then in storage at the Shinkolobwe Mine. All work at the mine had stopped with the outbreak of the war and the equipment had been transferred to vitally important copper and cobalt mining operations for the Allied war effort. In accordance with Sengier’s instructions, over 1,250 tons of uranium ore were shipped by way of the nearest port, Lobito, in Portuguese Angola, during September and October of 1940, and on arrival were stored in a warehouse on Staten Island.

Posted in Science, War | 4 Comments »

A tank designed for urban terrain would have radically different design requirements than a main battle tank designed for open warfare

October 31st, 2025

A tank designed for urban terrain would have radically different design requirements than a main battle tank designed for open warfare:

Main battle tanks rely primarily upon their speed and long-range firepower and are willing to sacrifice extra armor to retain mobility. In urban combat, however, the reverse is true: fights are at much closer ranges, mobility is measured by the ability to navigate sharp turns and tight/narrow streets, and speed can be sacrificed to retain maximum armor protection. Other unique requirements are the ability to shoot in multiple directions at once, shoot around 90-degree corners, increased importance on the ability to shoot at high and negative elevations, and designing the hull to carry cage armor and/or active protection systems.

[…]

The first, most important, hard factor in an urban tank is its armor. Urban tanks will routinely fight at close range, and so every trick in the book will be necessary to ensure safety and survivability. Armor should be uniformly thick on the front, sides, and rear, since attacks from every angle are to be expected. A pentagon-shaped hull can offer the benefits of sloped armor and V-hulls for protection from mines. A slightly more complex alternative is an octagon-shaped hull, which can offer more angles and smaller flat surfaces for increased shot deflection. Additional armor modules, like cage armor and active protection systems, will not replace or reduce the hull armor’s thickness, and the chassis must be designed to carry them all at once without overloading.

The second hard factor, relating directly to the first, is the vehicle’s engine and mobility. Rather than being built for speed, a tank’s engine will instead resemble a bulldozer engine. An urban tank will be a very heavy vehicle, and so a bulldozer-style engine will be capable of both handling the sheer weight of the vehicle and will allow the tank to overpower obstacles.

Obstacle clearing must be an expected, routine occurrence for urban tanks, and the ability to smash through them and other man-made fortifications without requiring a separate armored bulldozer will be advantageous.

The third hard factor is the tank’s guns. An urban tank will use short-barreled guns, since longer barrels are difficult to maneuver in tight spaces and the tank is less likely to engage in long-range shooting. As a bonus, short-barreled guns are quicker to acquire targets. High-elevation and negative-elevation shooting also benefits from this quicker target acquisition.

An urban tank would have a mixture of gun calibers for its main turret and side turrets/sponsons, since it will need to be capable of firing in multiple directions at once. Side turrets and sponsons will not necessarily require large-caliber guns, but they will require rapid-fire guns. These will often be fired around street/building corners and into buildings from the street to provide flanking fire in support of advancing infantry. Urban tanks may also incorporate a flamethrower in front. The flamethrower would be desirable for covering a tank’s underbelly from attackers in spider holes, tunnel entrances such as manholes, and/or basement windows. It can also thwart attempts to drag mines into the tank’s path and reduce ground-level enemy gun positions designed to provide grazing fire.

A major development in modern tank design is the unmanned turret. As mentioned before, urban tanks must expect enemy fire from multiple directions simultaneously, and thus would benefit from having multiple turrets like a 1920s tank or a pre-dreadnought battleship. The 1920s designs were a failure because the turrets needed to be manned.

[…]

Unmanned turrets, however, allow modern side turrets/sponsons to be much smaller and more compact than their 1920s ancestors, and keep the operators at a safe distance in the event of a direct hit and/or ammunition cook-off. Unmanned turrets can also be placed farther forward on the hull than manned turrets, since they weigh less and thus pose less risk of causing balance/center-of-gravity issues. Placing side turrets further forward, in turn, enables urban tanks to fire around 90-degree corners while exposing as little of its hull as possible. The controls for these would ideally be constructed like the A-10 Warthog’s controls, with redundancy and mechanical backups for all automated systems.

A second soft factor design element is the inclusion of escape hatches on all sides and the rear of the tank, a move that necessitates placing the engine and side turrets/sponsons towards the front of the vehicle.

[…]

Classic urban antitank tactics involve firing down onto the tank from above; while this will be less damaging to an urban tank than a main battle tank on account of its uniformly thick armor, limiting urban tankers to exiting via top hatches noticeably reduces their likelihood of escaping safely when bailing out under fire. This survivability need will also affect the design and employment of cage armor; cage armor designs must not block escape routes, and the escape routes must not widen the cage armor profile any more than is necessary. If the tank becomes too wide, then its usefulness in narrow streets declines rapidly.

Posted in War, Weapons | 5 Comments »

Our country would have been much better off in the immediate postwar years if we had had a group of officers who were thoroughly experienced in all the problems of this type of work

October 30th, 2025

Now It Can Be Told by Leslie M. GrovesGeneral Groves believed strongly, as he explains in Now It Can Be Told: The Story of the Manhattan Project, that in time of war every possible regular officer should be in the combat area:

I was undoubtedly influenced in this belief by my personal knowledge of the disappointment suffered by many regular officers who were kept in this country during World War I, with no chance of combat experience. In my own case, I was already a cadet when the war started, and remained at West Point until a few days before the Armistice. Had my own experience been different, I would quite probably have had a considerable number of regular officers assigned to the project throughout its duration.

As I look back now with a full appreciation of the tremendous import of the development of atomic energy, I think it was a mistake not to have had them. Our country would have been much better off in the immediate postwar years if we had had a group of officers who were thoroughly experienced in all the problems of this type of work — not only in problems of atomic energy but in all the manifold problems involved in technical and scientific developments that have played such an important part in our national defense since 1945.

While I am on the subject of my own mistakes, I perhaps should add that there was another consideration, similar to this, to which I did not give adequate attention. That was the necessity of having replacements available if either Nichols or I died or became disabled. Many serious problems would have arisen if anything had happened to either of us, and it was not proper for me to have placed such great reliance, fortunately not misplaced, upon the physical and mental ability of both of us to stand up under the strain, to say nothing of the possibility of accidental death or injury, particularly since we did so much flying.

This was brought very vividly to my attention in December of 1944, when Mr. Churchill suggested that I should come to London to talk over our problems, and particularly our progress, with him and other members of his government. In discussing his request with Secretary Stimson, I said that while I would like very much to go to England, I was afraid that it might take me away from my work for a considerable period of time, especially if something developed that would make it impossible for Mr. Churchill to receive me immediately on arrival.

Mr. Stimson told me that if I went, I could not go by air, because of the hazards involved. When I said, “Well, I don’t see what difference that would make,” he replied, “You can’t be replaced.” I said, “You do it, and General Marshall does it; why shouldn’t I?” He repeated, “As I said before, you can’t be replaced, and we can.” Harvey Bundy, who was also present, said he had heard that I had previously urged flying when air safety dictated otherwise, and then asked, “Who would take your place if you were killed?” I replied, “That would be your problem, not mine, but I agree that you might have a problem.”

I went on to say that if anything happened to Nichols, I felt that I could continue to operate, though it would mean a very strenuous period for me personally, but that if it were the other way around, while Nichols was thoroughly capable of taking over my position, I thought because he was not so familiar with my responsibilities as I was with his that he could not do both my job and his.

I drew up a list of about six officers who I thought would be satisfactory, keeping in mind that it would be all-important for the man selected to be completely acceptable to Nichols, since success would depend on the utmost co-operation between them. I particularly wanted someone who would not attempt to overrule Nichols in any of his actions or recommendations until he had had time really to understand what the work was all about, and I doubted whether it would be possible for anyone to accumulate the essential background for this before the project was completed.

Having made up my list, I discussed the matter with Nichols. I asked him to look over the names and to strike from the list anyone whom he would prefer not to have in such a position. He struck several names. I always suspected he struck the first one just to see if I really meant what I had said, because it was the name of a man whom I had known for many years, and who was a very close friend. When he struck that name, I did not bat an eye, but merely said, “Well, he’s out.”

After he had crossed off the names of the men he considered unacceptable, I asked him if he had any preference among the remainder. He replied, “You name him and I’ll tell you.” I said that I felt that the best one on the list was Brigadier General Thomas F. Farrell, and Nichols replied, “He would be my first choice, too.”

Posted in War | 2 Comments »

The whole state college system is genius at making men politically inert

October 29th, 2025

Devin Helton argues that the whole state college system really is genius at making both young 115-IQ, high-T men and wealthy older men politically inert:

I can’t even determine if it is totally degenerate or a great social technology invention for society stability, just currently used by a bad regime.

You break up their hometown networks, send them to state colleges that are in their own little bubbles in the boonies, spoil them relatively cheaply with booze and college football and young coeds.

Then the social networks get broken up again once they are thrown into the job market at age 23 in random cities, away from friends, left scrambling to build a life.

And then the networks get broken up a third time when they have to move from the expensive down-towns where the career-starting jobs are, to the suburbs to raise a family.

And so at 40 their kids start school with fellow stranger parents and the curriculum has been changed from learning about Columbus and Pilgrims to gender-scrambling and race communism but there is no ability for the parents to coordinate and do anything about it.

And, then you reward the super-elites with fellowships and professorships and presidencies at the college, so they get access to the hot young co-eds too. What a brilliant system.

What’s breaking stability now is that the neocon right got stale, but the left is so high on their own supply that they refuse to play ball with the new right/MAGA and offer them even a small share of the university plum jobs and peaches.

Posted in Education, Policy | 7 Comments »

Marines’ latest Pacific strategy highlights logistics, firepower

October 28th, 2025

Marine Corps Commandant Gen. Eric Smith released the Force Design 2030 update, which calls for building out the Corps’ logistics capabilities abroad to better resupply and sustain forces in the Pacific in the event of a major conflict:

Some solutions to the logistics issue include a dozen expeditionary fabrication labs, which can manufacture pieces and parts for in-the-field repairs rather than wait for parts to be shipped out from domestic factories. Other high-tech options include newer uncrewed vehicles, such as the Autonomous Low-Profile Vessel, to transport equipment and supplies with minimal risk to personnel. And then there are some low-tech plans, including one to simply set up more pre-placed stockpiles in the Indo-Pacific so that Marines can more easily access weapons and ammunition.

[…]

The other major focus is on building out the Marine Corps’ firepower. The update noted that the corps has been able to field multiple offensive weapons including the Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System, or NMESIS, that fires ship-killing missiles, and High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems or HIMARS. It also has started fielding air defense systems including the Marine Air Defense Integrated System, or MADIS, which are meant to counter drones and missiles. Last month, Marines brought the NMESIS and MADIS systems to Japan for a two-week exercise with the Japanese Self-Defense Force that focused on coastal island defense. This coming week III Marine Expeditionary Force is set to test HIMARS near Mount Fuji, according to III Marine Expeditionary Force.

The actual document opens with these words:

The Marine Corps is a naval expeditionary warfighting organization. We exist for one purpose: to fight and win our Nation’s battles. That truth has not changed since 1775, and it remains the measure of our relevance today.

We are modernizing at a time when the character of war is shifting rapidly. Adversaries are fielding advanced weapons and employing new methods designed to erode our warfighting advantages. Drones, long-range precision fires, cyber effects, and electronic warfare are now daily features of conflict. The lessons drawn from contemporary battlefields underscore what Marines have long understood: combat is unforgiving, and victory belongs to the side that adapts faster, fights harder, and endures longer.

Force Design is how we ensure our Corps stays ahead of this change and is driven by a continuous Campaign of Learning tested in wargames, refined in exercises, and proven in real-world operations. We are equipping Marines with the tools to thrive in contested environments: precision fires, unmanned systems, advanced mobility, resilient command and control, and data-driven decision-making. Yet technology alone will never define us. While the character of war evolves, its nature endures, and our ethos remains aligned to that truth. We do not man the equipment, we equip the Marine. Discipline, toughness, and initiative will always remain the decisive factors in battle.

Posted in War, Weapons | 1 Comment »

This blind faith in data files is baked into the academic formula for grants, jobs, influence, and professional success

October 27th, 2025

After reading Max Bazerman’s Inside an Academic Scandal, Rick Hess came away wondering, What if Social Science is a scam?

I couldn’t help but think his faith is misplaced. To start with, many of the studies he references in the course of the book strike me as unnecessary or simply pointless. A (hugely incomplete) list of the published studies includes those that examine whether counterfeit products make people feel insecure; whether increasing one’s “perceived” height, such as by riding an escalator, leads to more altruistic behavior; whether networking leads people to think of words related to cleanliness; whether messy workplaces are more productive; whether commercials with skinny models are less effective than those with other models; and whether people thinking about death eat more candy. These aren’t studies Bazerman’s spotlighting but rather a sampling of the scholarly research he touches upon in the course of his narrative. It’s telling that he seems to see such studies as unexceptional.

To my jaded eye, such research seems less like “science” and more like “academics amusing themselves in polite company.” Indeed, Bazerman relates an almost too-perfect illustration of this dynamic. A doctoral student whose thesis included an extended critique of Gino’s networking/cleanliness study (which was also later found to be fraudulent) was advised by a member of her dissertation committee to delete the section. Why? Because “academic research is like a conversation at a cocktail party,” and her critique would be seen as rude and inappropriate. However inane we might find the research question, remember that Gino’s study was considered “real” social science, published by an esteemed scholar in a prestigious academic journal. And I haven’t even touched on the faddish, data-free, critical-theory argle-bargle that constitutes such a big chunk of academic publishing.

I’m left wondering how many research studies are just a playground for a privileged caste of credentialed scribblers to amuse themselves and build comfortable careers, all with the aid of hefty public subsidies. Scholars certainly don’t think so. They tell us research is a dynamic endeavor and we have to trust that these explorations are how we surface unexpected, important truths. But should we actually buy that? I’m inclined to think that William Proxmire had a point with his “Golden Fleece” awards, and that we’re way overdue for a serious conversation about the kinds of research that merit public support.

Bazerman laments that even the universities don’t seem to take research outcomes all that seriously. It’s hard to when you prioritize PR and legal considerations over transparency. For instance, when (ethics scholar!) Ariely’s fraud came to light, Duke University’s only response was to quietly have him complete an eight-week professional ethics course. (Of course, Duke itself had recently been fined $112 million for using falsified data to win $200 million in federal funding.)

I know I sound like a broken record, but it’s hard to ignore the opportunity cost of all this. Gino, for instance, published more than 130 papers between 2007 and 2022—of which dozens appeared to be plagued by falsification and misconduct. Meanwhile, Bazerman recounts, “Gino made little time to meet with doctoral students, often failed to show up for meetings, canceled meetings at the last minute, and sometimes called [her colleague] Julia at the last minute to ask Julia to cover her teaching obligations.”

What exactly was this Harvard professor (and fount of falsified research) doing instead of teaching or mentoring? Bazerman explains that the “division of labor” meant that junior members of her team “directed the work and mentored students, while Gino offered occasional input, paid the bills, and used her resources and connections to promote the work.”

Not only does all this raise major questions about the utility of social science research, it also casts serious doubt on its reliability. Bazerman describes another of this century’s more infamous academic scandals, which unfolded a decade ago in the Netherlands when hotshot Tilburg University social psychologist Diederik Stapel churned out scores of papers with doctored or fabricated data. Stapel had a hypothesis: that looking at pictures of an attractive person would affect self-image negatively. (Why this needed to be researched at all, much less by a publicly subsidized scholar rather than a bored marketing intern at Estée Lauder, isn’t clear to me.) In any event, Stapel was sure he was right, “but the actual data didn’t support it.” Consequently, Bazerman relates, “Stapel sat at his kitchen table and began typing numbers into his computer that would produce the intended effect.” His study was published in the prominent Journal of Personality and Social Psychology in 2004. Before being discovered, Stapel committed fraud in at least 55 papers, and his fictional data was used in ten PhD dissertations.

For Bazerman, Stapel’s folly is a terrible abuse of science. I agree. But, even if Stapel’s numbers had supported his hypothesis, I wouldn’t be all that impressed. I wouldn’t have come away convinced that Stapel surfaced some important, fundamental truth about human nature. More likely, I’d have thought it was a silly question and wondered about the soundness of his research design.

Now, I don’t mean this as some kind of anti-research screed. There are, of course, purposeful, comprehensive, data-conscious research enterprises that are attempting to answer questions of pressing social import. (This is the kind of scholarship that we celebrate at EdNext.) But, in Bazerman’s description of Stapel, I couldn’t help but think of all the thousands and thousands of social scientists who spend hours each day hunched over laptops playing with data files that they didn’t collect, don’t fully understand, and frequently take on faith. They don’t know exactly how the data was obtained, the vagaries of the collection, or how sturdy it is. How confident can we be in the results that get spit out, even when they’re “statistically significant”? I’d argue: A lot less than we typically are.

And it’s not like the researchers invested in these projects are scrupulously asking, “Is this true?” Rather, as Bazerman notes, the incentives to pump out papers or make a splash can lead to all manner of shortcuts. He points out that even esteemed scholars rarely review their co-authors’ data, because division of labor is a recipe for speed. They delegate much of the data collection to doctoral students because that helps move things along. This blind faith in data files is baked into the academic formula for grants, jobs, influence, and professional success (whether or not the results can be trusted).

Posted in Science | 3 Comments »

Joe Rogan interviews Palmer Luckey

October 26th, 2025

This Joe Rogan interview of Palmer Luckey is self-recommending:

Posted in Technology, War, Weapons | No Comments »

The Antichrist is a Luddite

October 25th, 2025

Peter Thiel recently delivered a series of four lectures on behalf of ACTS 17 Collective — a nonprofit dedicated to Acknowledging Christ in Technology and Society (ACTS) — about the Antichrist:

Thiel kicks off the lecture series by identifying himself as two things in his private life: “A small-o orthodox Christian” and a “humble classical liberal.” Thiel claims his fears about the Antichrist are his only “deviation from classical liberal orthodoxy,” and his analogy between the Antichrist and one-worldism, one of the central motifs of his lectures, is unmistakably libertarian.

While the rapid rise in AI and other advanced technologies has led many to believe that the Antichrist will use technology to accomplish his goals — the New York Times opinion columnist Ross Douthat has even suggested to Thiel that the surveillance technology provided by Palantir could be a tool for the Antichrist — Thiel says in his first lecture that, “in the 21st century, the Antichrist is a Luddite who wants to stop all science.” In his second lecture, Thiel goes on to identify “the legionnaires of the Antichrist [as people] like Eliezer Yudkowsky, Nick Bostrom, and Greta Thunberg [who] argue for world government to stop science.”

Although Thiel doesn’t explicitly reference Crisis and Leviathan (1987) — the celebrated book by American historian and economist Robert Higgs — he warns that the former precipitates the latter. In his first lecture, Thiel cites Matthew 24:6 to insist that “the Antichrist will come to power by talking about Armageddon non-stop” and 1 Thessalonians 5:3 as evidence that the Antichrist will rise to power by promising “peace and safety.” In his second lecture, Thiel explains how “a new, reformed government called ‘Leviathan,’” as described by political philosopher Thomas Hobbes in his 1651 political treatise, that wields supreme power to cow men into peaceful cooperation, will be ridden by the Antichrist “to take over the world.”

Opposition to totalitarianism aside, not all of Thiel’s comments fit comfortably within the libertarian worldview. Thiel criticizes “zombie liberalism” and “lame libertarian abstractions,” preferring an anti-communist ideology where “you could do some pretty bad stuff because the communists were so much worse.” For example, Thiel praises the CIA of the ’60s, ’70s, and ’80s, for being “sort of this rogue thing outside the State Department,” which he says was full of communists.

Still, Thiel recognizes state power as a double-edged sword, identifying the American empire as simultaneously “the natural candidate for Katechon” — the entity that delays the emergence of the Antichrist — “and Antichrist; ground zero of the one-world state, ground zero of the resistance to the one-world state.” In his third lecture, Thiel names “tax treaties, financial surveillance, and sanctions architecture” as defining features of the international “Antichrist-like system” of international governance. Thiel explains how “it’s become quite difficult to hide one’s money” in the wake of the Patriot Act, the “extensive” administrative state (the Treasury Department, in particular), and the centralization of payments on the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications system — an international messaging network better known as SWIFT, which banks use to process global payments. All of these factors make it impossible to “escape from global taxation if you’re a U.S. citizen,” he says. Thiel links this erosion of financial freedom to Revelation 13:16-17, which prophesies about a society where an individual’s ability to engage in commerce is contingent upon brandishing the mark of the beast on one’s body.

Posted in Policy, Technology | 1 Comment »

Sweden designed the jet in the 1980s specifically to survive Soviet strikes on air bases

October 24th, 2025

The Ukrainian air force may eventually re-equip with Saab Gripen E/F fighters:

The nimble supersonic jets are uniquely suited to the Ukrainian way of war, which requires the air force to spread far and wide across small airfields and even roadway airstrips in order to avoid attack.

This matters because Ukraine’s jets keep flying by avoiding big, vulnerable air bases — dispersing instead to highways and hidden strips across the country. But this survival strategy puts intense pressure on the aircraft. While Ukrainian brigades can coax American F-16s into this nomadic existence, it requires mobile support teams and kid-glove treatment.

The Gripen doesn’t — it’s built for rough-field warfare. Sweden designed the jet in the 1980s specifically to survive Soviet strikes on air bases, operating instead from highway strips scattered across the country.

Posted in War | 2 Comments »

Infrared Sauna vs. Traditional Sauna vs. Hot Tub

October 23rd, 2025

Infrared saunas have become incredibly popular, even though they aren’t really saunas:

To the untrained eye, they basically look the same as what you’d expect a sauna to look like—wood paneling, benches, some guy who just had to bring his phone inside—and both actually share a bunch of the same health benefits.

[…]

Infrared saunas give off way less heat, thus making the surrounding area a much more habitable place for those who’d prefer not to partake.

[…]

A true traditional sauna, also called a Finnish sauna, uses a wood fire to heat stones, which in turn heat the air inside the sauna. Nowadays, you can also find electric saunas (these tend to get filed under “traditional”), which also use stones, but the stones are heated by electricity rather than fire. Traditional saunas can maintain temperatures between 150-220 degrees Fahrenheit.

[…]

Unlike traditional saunas, Infrared saunas do not have a central heat source. Instead, they utilize ceramic or metallic panels to emit far-infrared light. “An infrared sauna uses infrared light to directly heat your body, rather than heating the air around you like a traditional sauna,” Dr. Setareh says. Hence, infrared saunas are able to operate at much lower temperatures—between 100–165 degrees—while still giving you a similar, albeit decidedly less intense, sensation to sitting in a traditional sauna.

According to Dr. Setareh, “both types of saunas share common benefits—like improving circulation, promoting relaxation, and encouraging recovery,” and studies have also found both to have positive effects on lowering blood pressure.

[…]

Research, including a landmark 2015 Finnish study that surveyed 2,315 men over the course of two decades, has long associated sauna use with heart health and a decreased risk of cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality. But it wasn’t until a recent study, published earlier this year in the American Journal of Physiology, that researchers have formally begun weighing the benefits of traditional saunas against their infrared counterparts. (This latest study also compared both types of sauna to a hot tub, which surprisingly emerged as the most beneficial of the three when it came to promoting heart health.)

The hot tub has other benefits:

In addition to a greater increase in heart rate, the researchers also observed higher production of interleukin-6—a critical protein involved in the body’s immune and inflammatory responses—from hot tub exposure compared with sauna use. In fact, the hot tub even appeared to spur production of T cells, helper T cells, and natural killer cells, all of which play an essential role in the body’s immune system—something the study authors saw none of during participants’ stints in the saunas. “If you can acutely raise your inflammatory responses and then drop them back down again,” he says, “it’s a challenge to the system—it activates it and then shuts it back down again—and that’s aligned with better health.”

Posted in Fitness, Science | No Comments »

If they ran 100 missions like that, 95 would fail

October 22nd, 2025

The average wait for an evacuation from the Ukrainian front is a week, with some taking as long as a month:

Wounded soldiers have died waiting despite being supplied with intravenous fluids and pain relief, he says.

Evacuations are dangerous, and commanders are constantly weighing the risks. In one case, the driver of an M113 armored vehicle sent to rescue a casualty was killed when it was hit by a drone. Six more soldiers were then injured in subsequent missions to rescue the same soldier.

[…]

“We never send people closer than 5km [3 miles] to the front if a robot can do the job,” Eugune says. “We navigate at night using landmarks like trees, towers, and roads. It’s like orienteering.”

[…]

Engineers from the unit have adapted one of its TERMIT ground robots, now known as “Mr. Hook,” to recover marooned UGVs.

“Sometimes it’s simple — an electric cable or debris caught in the tracks, even abandoned village power lines can be a hazard, tangling in the vehicle’s running gear,” Eugene says. “This one’s going to be more difficult, though, the UGV weighs about 120 kilos [265lbs], and with the load it’s carrying, nearly 270 kilos in total.”

[…]

Ruslan uses a Turkish-made Hatsan 12-gauge shotgun for defense against enemy drones.

Once the UGV is on the ground, Vitalik takes control, with Serhii as co-pilot and navigator, and in less than an hour, the robot reaches the frontline, where soldiers quickly emerge from a dugout to retrieve the supplies

[…]

All the hardware and software are built in-house, and it takes about a week to adapt manufacturer-delivered UGVs so they can operate in frontline conditions, Eugene says. GPS often drops out due to Russian jamming, for example, so operators have to navigate visually using the feed from a nearby Mavic drone.

Custom software reduces delays in communication with the vehicles, but there is no standardized national system. Government-issued software is proprietary and slow to obtain, so the unit develops its own to maintain flexibility and adapt quickly to battlefield changes.

Operating UGVs is far more time-consuming than flying First-Person-View (FPV) drones, Eugene says. But while FPV drones can reach their target in minutes, they can only carry light loads.

Baba Yaga drones, for instance, can only carry about 10 kilos and wear out after roughly 100 missions. UGVs move slowly and must navigate terrain obstacles, but can deliver heavy payloads. They cost about $10,000, and Eugune says prices remain high because they are not mass-produced.

“Right now, there are only two viable roads in this sector, which the Russians patrol with drones,” he says. “UGVs are harder to detect because they’re electric and have a low thermal signature.”

The front is no longer a single trench line but, in places, a contested zone up to 15km deep with multiple layers of positions. Eugene says his team can’t cover some forested areas, forcing troops to carry supplies by hand for the last stretch. And the inconsistency of Starlink’s satellite internet connection doesn’t help.

On this mission in the Kharkiv region, the robot is running on a decentralized so-called mesh network rather than solely on Starlink, and the unit sometimes deploys a separate “bicycle penetrator” robot, which carries Starlink or mesh nodes as a forward relay. Typical signal range is about 7km, though a small aircraft carrying a transmitter can extend that to 30km.

On one mission working as a navigator for another unit that relies solely on Starlink, Eugene recalls guiding a UGV carrying a casualty over 1.7km of hostile territory. The trip took two-and-a-half hours because the Starlink connection dropped every five meters, he said.

The route was entirely within the kill zone, where no one could remain in the open, yet the injured soldier had to be moved along a regular road. “It’s just luck the UGV wasn’t destroyed,” Eugene says. “If they ran 100 missions like that, 95 would fail.”

Posted in Technology, War | No Comments »

Christianity provided this sense of purpose for Europe

October 21st, 2025

Taking Religion Seriously by Charles MurrayPart of Charles Murray’s journey to Taking Religion Seriously came through writing Human Accomplishment:

Any book that attempts to explain the explosion of innovation, wealth, and creative artistry in Europe from the fifteenth through the nineteenth centuries must reckon with the role played by the Christian faith. He argued in the book that such creativity flows most freely when “the most talented people believe that life has a purpose and that individuals can act efficaciously to fulfill that purpose.”

Christianity provided this sense of purpose for Europe, and its decline had noticeable effects as well. Murray notes that as the Christian faith faded as a motivator of elite action, technical achievement may have continued, but true art did not. Art that attempts to represent transcendent truth, access the beauty of reality, or point to goodness was elevating. Murray thinks that the replacement of this older ideal of art with one that casts artists as visionaries or rebels has led to art’s degradation as “artists tend to make their work about their personal preferences, and those preferences tend to be banal, or wrongheaded, or both.” He offers this as another clue: anyone who agrees with him that art is not what it once was might consider the connection between art and faith. But at the very least, he suggests that it is interesting that the loss of transcendent purpose in human life is reflected in numerous dark ways in art.

Yet, Murray is keenly aware of how astonishing the leap from any of his clues to considering Christian teachings must seem, and he dedicates considerable attention to explaining this. His own engagement with these questions began after reading C.S. Lewis and considering the apologist’s presentation of natural law alongside Murray’s own deep involvement with evolutionary psychology.

Fully convinced that evolutionary psychology offers “one of social science’s most important tools for understanding human behavior,” Murray nonetheless observed a problem: Even if evolved norms can explain the universality of certain moral rules, what do we make of the instances when our natural instincts conflict with what we know to be right? While psychology can at least model an answer (at least when family or friends are involved), Murray argues that the field seems to have little explanation for “agape: unconditional love, focused on giving rather than receiving, not based on merit or acquaintance with the recipient.” Given the extraordinary focus Christianity places on this sacrificial sense of love, Murray believed he had to decide, finally, what he made of the person of Jesus of Nazareth.

Posted in Policy | 1 Comment »

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